Data from Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple suggests low risk/return conditions at current levels, but macro conditions still trouble long-term optimism.
Bitcoin () is attempting to reclaim a key long-term moving average, but the time to buy is before, not after, one metric hints.
Mayer Multiple nears pivot
Bitcoin price strength has endured as the week gets underway, the largest cryptocurrency putting in its highest levels of 2022 overnight.
Some key moving averages have also fallen to bulls, and while the trend is not yet definitive, optimism is increasing that Bitcoin could even challenge November’s all-time highs based on that fact.
Next in line, meanwhile, is the 200-day moving average (DMA), currently at $48,300 and just tapped in the past 24 hours. The 200DMA is a key component of the Mayer Multiple metric, which measures spot price ratio to it in order to determine potential profitable market entry points.
A score below 2.4 on the Multiple tends to signal good long-term rewards for investors. Having bottomed in January at around 0.76, its trend has reversed since, and as of Tuesday — almost right at the 200MA — Bitcoin has a Mayer Multiple score of 0.98.
“That’s a good time to buy,” Ecoinometrics argued in comments, adding that even if a breakout from the 200DMA ends up being a bull trap, losses in such situations have historically been “small.”
“So even though the macro backdrop isn’t looking good, this is a buy,” a further post continued.
“When it comes to these strategies with asymmetric returns you have to be systematic.”
Derivatives lose their speculative tinge
Those macro tensions, which include inflation and central banks’ attempts to fight it with monetary policy tightening, remain a key topic of debate this month.
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple analysts have warned that the outlook could still turn firmly against Bitcoin and risk assets more broadly as rates rise and a “stagflationary” environment emerges.
The sense that a sustained rally in cannot possibly form the new paradigm is evident among professional traders, as derivatives markets funding rates remain flat despite weekly gains approaching 20% for /USD.
“Excessive long biased derivative market speculation is near non-existent currently,” analyst Dylan LeClair noted in a Twitter thread on the topic Monday.
Displayed below are annualized perpetual future funding rates (24 hour MA).
Traders were paying ~100% annualized to go long &src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>$ early in 2021. A similar but less severe speculative market arose in the fall.
Today? Funding has been flat/negative for most all of 2022.
— Dylan LeClair (@DylanLeClair_) March 28, 2022
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