Bitcoin Outlook: Coinbase Forecasts Macro Factors to Influence Crypto Markets After Halving

  • Coinbase is convinced beyond the impact of halving, macro factors will also shape market sentiment.
  • Ultimately, Bitcoin is tipped to protect against geopolitical risks as a hedge.

Coinbase Global Inc., one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, is anticipating that with the Bitcoin halving completed, macroeconomic factors will be pivotal in dictating the price trajectory of digital asset markets.

This is a clear contradiction from previous post-halving events where a bullish run is certainly guaranteed due to industry-based push factors.

Macro Factors Influencing Crypto Markets

According to a research report, analyst David Han emphasized the significance of external factors in influencing crypto markets, even as crypto fundamentals remain robust. Some of the external drivers ticked by Hans include heightened geopolitical tensions, prolonged periods of elevated interest rates, reflationary policies, and escalating national debts.

He maintained that these factors, which are independent of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, are likely to exert considerable influence on market sentiment. As previously highlighted by Crypto News Flash, the price of Bitcoin took a dip below the $60,000 mark following retaliatory strikes by Israel on Iran, as many investors embarked on a selling spree and favored other assets like gold, silver, and bonds.

A noteworthy observation made in the report is the heightened correlation of altcoins to Bitcoin, indicating BTC’s role as a key anchor in the crypto space. According to Hans, despite the emergence of various digital assets, Bitcoin remains a leader “indicating BTC’s anchor role in the space even as BTC firms its position as a macro asset.”

Although historical data suggests that previous halving events have often coincided with bull markets, the Coinbase reports posit that such cyclical uptrends have typically been accompanied by additional catalysts within the crypto space. The halving event which occurs every four years is expected to drive market movements in the coming days.

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Bitcoin’s Price Volatility

However, hours before the halving which occurred at midnight GMT, the price of Bitcoin dipped from $64,620 and continued on a steady downward trajectory as observed on our platform. It bottomed out around $63,036. Bitcoin remained in the $63,000 threshold for over twelve hours after the halving saw the reward for miners drop to 3.125 BTC per mined block.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $63,945.53 with a marginal 1% slump. This shows halving is not fully priced in yet.

Coinbase also highlights the evolving perception of Bitcoin among investors. A growing segment of the market views it as a “digital gold,” and hedge against geopolitical risks. This shift in outlook births two distinct investor groups: those who perceive Bitcoin as a speculative asset and others who utilize it as a macroeconomic hedge.

The report echoes the sentiments detailed in an earlier report from Crypto News Flash by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs. The bank called for caution against drawing direct comparisons with previous market cycles and overestimating the impact of halving events. 

Analysts anticipate that given these prevailing macroeconomic conditions including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions, the cryptocurrency market is likely to chart a different path post-halving. 

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