- With the halving only 12 days away, investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price trends; despite a mid-week dip, BTC is approaching $70,000, gaining 2.3% in the past day.
- Analysts believe BTC bulls must push the crypto past the $70,000 resistance before the halving to confirm an upside breakout from the pennant pattern it has been caught up in since late February.
Bitcoin’s fate this year was always going to depend on two events—the ETF decision by the SEC in January and the halving in April. The first is behind us, and it has pushed BTC to its highest price ever at over $73,000. The next is due in 12 days, and analysts are split on how the price swings.
Bitcoin trades at $69,550, gaining 2.2% in the past day despite a 32% dip in its trading volume. Having started the week above $70,000, the top crypto dipped to a weekly low below $65,000 on Tuesday, but it has rebounded and seems poised to regain critical support above $70,000. Year-to-date, BTC has gained 64% as the ETFs and an overall market rally pushed its price to new heights.
One of the most significant events in the Bitcoin ecosystem is upcoming, and analysts are still divided on which way it will push BTC’s price. The halving will occur in 12 days, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC ($434,438) to 3.125 BTC ($217,219).
Analysts from Steno Research, a Danish macro research company, believe that Bitcoin will experience a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. This is when the price of an asset surges as it approaches a significant event, such as listing on a big exchange or approval from regulators, but dips drastically post-event.
Steno says the BTC price will likely surge over the next 12 days. The graph below shows that BTC always spikes as it approaches the halving.
However, immediately following the halving, it’s likely to remain subdued before appreciating over the next year, a pattern the top crypto has followed for the previous three halvings.
“Yet, it is crucial to emphasize our optimistic long-term perspective: the halving is profoundly bullish for Bitcoin. We expect the anticipated reduction in selling pressure from miners to bolster Bitcoin’s price fundamentally,” the researchers say.
They added:
We believe the real bullish momentum of the halving will become apparent once the initial market adjustments have settled, and the “weak hands” – those investors who bought in anticipating quick gains, including some ETF investors – have exited. The long-term beneficial effects of the halving on Bitcoin’s price are expected to materialize after this early phase of downwards pressure.
In the short term, one analyst says that BTC needs to break above the $70,000 resistance if it’s to maintain its bullish momentum. Known to his 88,000 X followers as Captain Faibik, he observed that Bitcoin had been stuck in a pennant pattern where the price experiences a sharp movement before consolidating.
This pattern has been in play since early March, and if BTC breaks on the upper side of the trendline, which is above $70,000, it’s likely to maintain its bullish rally.
$BTC is Bouncing back Nicely but still Consolidating within the Triangle.
Bulls must Clear the 70k Resistance area to Confirm the upside Breakout.#Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/NxAz8Y1ktq
— Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) April 5, 2024
