Shitcoins are ‘garbage’: Bitcoin-only brokers on freedom and finance

Shitcoins are ‘garbage’: Bitcoin-only brokers on freedom and finance

Bitcoin-only exchanges explain that selling altcoins is an attractive business model that sidesteps far greater long-term benefits for society, such as greater freedoms and financial prosperity.

In Europe, “Bitcoin only” is a growing trend, as more and more consumers and companies are hardening their resolve that Bitcoin (BTC) is the only digital asset worth holding. 

Bitcoin-only exchanges and brokers are places to stack sats, not “gamble” on Ether (ETH), or trade “garbage” that looks like “venture investments.” 

That’s according to the CEOs of major Bitcoin-only exchanges and brokers, including CoinCorner, FastBitcoins, Relai, Bittr, Pocket Bitcoin and Bitcoin-lyon. Cointelegraph spoke to the CEOs and founders of these European Bitcoin brokers to find out why they are Bitcoin only, and why you should build a company on this conviction.

The separation of money from the state

Firstly, according to Danny Brewster, CEO of FastBitcoins, “Bitcoin is our only hope of separating money and state; it is the one opportunity that we will have to accomplish such a feat.” It’s a once-in-a-generation — perhaps, lifetime — opportunity to pry the money printer from the government’s hands.

Bitcoin takes the belief in money out of the state’s hands, replacing it with math. Source: Bitcoin Visuals

Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai in Switzerland, builds on the notion, adding that Bitcoin is incomparable: “It is the only asset that is truly decentralized — i.e., has no leader or leading team — and, therefore, truly uncensorable and unseizable.”

Indeed, “digital scarcity can only be created once — i.e., the state of the world where no working cryptocurrency existed in 2008, can never be recreated, simply because Bitcoin exists today,” Ruben Waterman, CEO of Switzerland-based but Dutch-led Bittr, told Cointelegraph.

Brewster explains that for every new digital coin post-Bitcoin that is created, there is an inherent risk of government intervention:

“No government will ever let another network or technology gain as much traction as Bitcoin has accomplished ever again should Bitcoin fail.”

Jimmy Chambrade, co-founder of Bitcoin-lyon — the only exchange in France where you can buy Bitcoin with paper money — highlighted that while separating the money from the state is key, Bitcoin is a “Résistance” money. Fundamentally, “censorship resistance is essential to the freedom of individuals.”

He explained that France was founded on “liberté” or freedom, and the famous painting by Eugène Delacroix “Freedom Leading the People” is so well-loved that in an incongruous twist of fate, it featured on the 100 franc fiat banknote.

On Bitcoin adoption, Chambrade added that “philosophically speaking, Bitcoin allows the citizen to regain financial control and gain freedom.”

The “Freedom Leading the People” painting ironically features on the former French 100 franc banknote (center right). Source: NumisCollection

While the thread of freedom sews the Bitcoiner belief-system together, according to Matthias Koller, co-founder of Pocket Bitcoin, the underlying implications of separating the power of money creation from the government by using a “money that works the same and is equally accessible to everyone” are huge. It can “change the world,” said Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner.

Bitcoin will be “for the greater good, for ourselves and others in the long term,” Scott continued, stating:

“We’re here to change the world, not take money from gamblers.”

Belief in Bitcoin > Taking profit from people

Interestingly, the Bitcoin-only business model brandishes a concerted effort to avoid selling “garbage,” according to Brewster and Waterman, and what Scott calls “taking money from gamblers” for the purchase of altcoins or “shitcoins.” 

Every single Bitcoin-only exchange leader commented on the altcoin business model, lamenting the ease with which altcoin exchanges, such as Coinbase, Kraken and Gemini make “short term gains” by selling “as many shitcoins as possible.”

Waterman continued, explaining that the more trading that goes on in an app, the more trading fees are earned, the more revenue goes up. He understands that “it [altcoin sales] makes sense from a business point of view.” Incidentally, Coinbase makes most of its revenue from trading fees —something Strike’s Jack Mallers (another Bitcoin-only believer) has taken aim at in the past.

For the Bitcoin-only brokers, the belief in the long-term benefits of adopting Bitcoin far outweighs what Scott describes as “forfeiting short-term revenue by not adding the hundreds of altcoins.”

Brewster agreed, wielding a hardline view:

“We are also willing to forgo early and somewhat easy profits that we could make by providing customers with yet another altcoin/shitcoin casino, that distorts the public understanding of what Bitcoin is and why it even exists.”

Scott, who is technically Brewster’s neighbor, as both CoinCorner and FastBitcoins operate from the Isle of Man (a budding Bitcoin hotspot), suggested that “‘crypto exchange’ business models seem to be focused mainly around price speculation on cryptocurrencies. They appear to have lost their way and are no longer helping the wider adoption of Bitcoin as a currency.

Bitcoin adoption curve. Source: Bitcoin Visuals

Liniger added that they “want to be a savings app, not a speculation app. That‘s why Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency we support” — everything else is “speculation.” Or in Brewster’s view, non-Bitcoin projects are “noise, a scam, a distraction or purely speculative,” a way for insiders of a project “to dump on retail at the earliest opportunity.”

2021 was littered with examples of pump-and-dump schemes, cryptocurrencies that made up for poor utility with blockbuster marketing campaigns. The Squid Game Token went from $2,800 to effectively $0; memecoins flew before abrupt crash-landing; and spotting a “rug pull” has become a skill in its own right for traders.

Ultimately, Waterman is “totally fine” with “playing the long-term game at the expense of missing out on some short-term gains.”

Bitcoin is a savings technology

Store of value, digital gold or simply a saving technology, at the heart of each Bitcoin-only business is to make it easy and convenient for customers to buy Bitcoin. Waterman explained that “it should be easy and accessible to anyone in Europe to preserve their wealth and become financially independent from the banking system.”

Globally, Bitcoin has been gaining traction as what Michael Saylor calls a hedge against inflation, while Bitcoin’s deflationary monetary policy and its hard cap of 21 million are growing in appeal to Europeans due to the inflationary environment in the European Union and the United Kingdom.

“We believe that Bitcoin is the best way to save money in the 21st century, and we want to give everybody access to the world’s best savings technology,” Liniger told Cointelegraph. Koller, a Swiss compatriot, chimed in, “We want to help and encourage our clients to use a secure and hard form of money for their savings. One that is built on sound technology and policy.”

It’s that sound technology that separates Bitcoin from other crypto assets. Waterman explained how Bitcoin satisfies the blockchain scalability trilemma, an adequately cryptic phrase born out of the creation of Ethereum, but which Bitcoin seemingly satisfies. 

Bitcoin and the “scalability trilemma.” Source: Bitcoin Visuals

“Bitcoin has gained the most adoption; it’s the most secure network to move value over the internet; and it’s the most decentralized (as everyone can still run a Bitcoin node. Nodes are widely distributed across the world and Bitcoin cannot easily be changed, which is a feature, not a bug).”

Related: ‘How I met Satoshi’: The mission to teach 100M people about Bitcoin by 2030

For the bevy of Bitcoiners with whom Cointelegraph communicated, there was agreement on many aspects of Bitcoin, such as Chambrade’s “technical, commercial and philosophical,” reasons. Plus, their conviction in Bitcoin guides their business principles.

However, the tl;dr is that Bitcoin-only companies are laser(eye)-focused on selling Bitcoin to Europeans simply because it’s a better form of money. That’s why Brewster “point-blank refuse[s] to sell people garbage that is not going to enable Bitcoin to fulfill its potential.”

Leaving altcoin abuse to one side, Koller concluded:

 “There is no other form of money that comes anywhere close to what Bitcoin has to offer.”

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Crypto rallies to $2T market cap as institutions signal readiness to enter

Crypto rallies to $2T market cap as institutions signal readiness to enter

Goldman Sachs revamped its website’s homepage to reflect newfound bullishness toward crypto and blockchain technology.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market rallied on Thursday, as the total value of digital assets crossed $2 trillion for the first time in over three weeks amid signs of a clear shift in market sentiment — headlined by Goldman Sachs, no less. 

BTC printed an intraday high of $44,253, having gained more than 3% during the session, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has now recovered over 33% from its January low.

The total crypto market cap has gained over 7% since Monday to reach nearly $2.1 trillion, according to Coingecko data. The market capitalization figure also reached $2 trillion on CoinMarketCap.

While not bullish, Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has escaped “extreme fear” and is now in the “fear” stage with a reading of 40. The volatility and sentiment indicator is based on a scale of 0 to 100 with higher readings corresponding to a more bullish outlook for BTC.

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index remains an important proxy for overall market conditions. Source:

The crypto market’s apparent shift in sentiment follows months of downward price action for Bitcoin and altcoins, which led some investors to speculate about the possibility of a full-fledged bear market. Amid geopolitical unrest, however, members of the legacy finance community have identified crypto as a potential opportunity.

As Cointelegraph reported, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the war in Ukraine could force nations to reevaluate their currency dependencies, potentially paving the way for digital assets. Specifically, the BlackRock CEO touted digital assets as a viable tool for international settlements and transactions.

Crypto has been on Fink’s radar since at least the fourth quarter of 2020.

Meanwhile, multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs appears to have put crypto on its radar and even redesigned its website’s homepage to reflect the growth of digital assets and the metaverse. Referring to these technologies as “megatrends,” Goldman populated a new “Insights” section of its website with previously released reports on gaming, the metaverse and Web3.

Goldman Sachs’ homepage on March 24, 2022. 

Goldman Sachs recently completed its first over-the-counter crypto options trade with Galaxy Digital. The investment bank first launched its Bitcoin futures product for CME in June 2021.

Related: US investment bank Cowen launches dedicated crypto division

Finally, Grayscale Investments recently announced the launch of a new smart contract fund that allows accredited investors to back Ethereum competitors. The new fund, which has already opened for daily subscriptions, provides exposure to Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), Polygon (MATIC), Algorand (ALGO) and Stellar (XLM).

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Bitcoin hits $44K, but traders want to see a few daily closes here before a move higher

Bitcoin hits $44K, but traders want to see a few daily closes here before a move higher

BTC pushed through a key price level as investor sentiment soars across the sector, but analysts caution that $44,000 must become support to mark a macro-level trend change.

Morale across the cryptocurrency ecosystem is rising on March 24 as several days of positive moves have helped lift Bitcoin (BTC) back above $44,000 and Ether bulls took control at $3,100. 

The climbing price of BTC comes amidst a backdrop of surging inflation and rising interest rates which could see up to seven hikes over the course of 2022 according to Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after trading near $43,000 throughout the morning session on Thursday, a midday spike lifted the price of BTC to an intraday high at $44,186 where it bumped up against a major resistance zone.

Bitcoin needs to flip $44,000 into support

A look at the weekly chart shows that “Bitcoin is breaking out from the weekly ascending triangle” according to market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Rekt Capital’, who posted the following chart outlining the formation that has been developing over the past few months.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

While the quick move up has many proclaiming a return of bull market conditions, Rekt Capital warned that “for BTC to confirm this breakout,” it “needs to flip the ascending triangle top into support (e.g. via a 1-week close).”

Rekt Capital said,

“Upside wicks beyond this Ascending Triangle top have happened before (orange circles)”

Related: ‘US government does not stand for freedom’: Bukele reacts to US bill passing Senate committee

The significance of the resistance BTC now faces was also touched upon by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Sheldon the Sniper’, who posted the following chart highlighting the zone from $44,000 to $46,000.

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: Twitter

The trader said,

“$44,000-$46,000 is a very important zone for bulls to break. I expect a short-term pullback in this zone but a break of this zone in the next few days. Market definitely showing good strength.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.997 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.8%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin bulls take aim at $45K while some analysts warn of possible correction

Bitcoin bulls take aim at $45K while some analysts warn of possible correction

BTC price spikes above $43,000 as bulls look to push for $45,000 while some analysts warn about the formation of a bearish flag that could lead to a price correction.

The bullish narrative is beginning to build across the cryptocurrency ecosystem on March 22 as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly spiked above $43,000 while Ether (ETH) has reclaimed support at $3,000 following a deposit of $110 million worth of ETH into Lido’s liquidity pools.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin rallied 6.15% from a low of $40,884 in the early hours of Tuesday to an intraday high at $43,380 before consolidating around support at $42,300.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what several analysts are saying about Bitcoin’s recent price action and which support and resistance levels to keep an eye on moving forward.

BTC price could correct lower

A foreshadowing of Bitcoin’s move on March 22 was provided by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Rekt Captial,” who posted the following chart noting that “If Bitcoin successfully retests the green dashed diagonal as new support,” then it “will spring towards the green ~$43100 resistance ahead.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

According to the trader, this was a notable development because it “confirmed” the end of the “multi-month series of lower highs” for Bitcoin and suggests we could soon head higher.

Despite this bullish turn of events, fellow trader and pseudonymous Twitter user “Ed_NL” warned that it may still be a bit premature to open a BTC long based on price action following the pump.

BTC/USD 15-minute chart. Source: Twitter

“BTC forming a bearish flag after the initial drop, but this feels like a typical trap where we first take out the early shorters before going down to correct,” the analyst opined. 

Potential squeeze higher

The upward trend for BTC was also highlighted by crypto trader and host of The Wolf of All Streets podcast Scott Melker, who posted the following chart noting that Bitcoin is “still making higher lows, consolidating towards the key level around $45,500.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Options trader and pseudonymous Twitter user “Joh Wick” also noted this upward drift on the BTC chart, suggesting that there is a potential squeeze in play that could lead to further price gains.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Wick further explained:

“Remember we have squeeze shading zone that looks like it wants to breakout! Could be the technical catalyst to get us past $45,000 – $46,000 resistance.”

Related: Bitcoin hovers at $43K on Wall Street open amid growing fever over Terra’s $3B BTC buy-in

Needs to hold support at $42,300

A final bit of insight was provided by crypto trader and Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart highlighting the run-up in Bitcoin, which has managed to hold on to a “crucial support.”

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart. Source: Twitter

“If Bitcoin can sustain those levels, it seems to me that we’re getting a period of some relief rallies across markets. Would be good,” van de Poppe explained.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.923 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin beats owning COIN stock by 20% since Coinbase IPO

Bitcoin beats owning COIN stock by 20% since Coinbase IPO

Investing directly in Bitcoin turned out to be a better bet than owning Coinbase stock since its IPO.

Buying a Coinbase stock (COIN) to gain indirect exposure in the Bitcoin (BTC) market has been a bad strategy so far compared to simply holding BTC. 

Notably, COIN is down by nearly 50% to almost $186, if measured from the opening rate on its IPO on April 14, 2021. In comparison, Bitcoin outperformed the Coinbase stock by logging fewer losses in the same period — a little over 30% as it dropped from nearly $65,000 to around $41,700

BTC/USD (orange) vs. COIN price (blue). Source: TradingView

What’s bothering Coinbase?

The correlation between Coinbase and Bitcoin has been largely positive to date, however, suggesting that many investors consider them as assets with similar value propositions. That is primarily due to the buzz around how COIN could become a simpler onboarding experience for investors into the crypto sector compared to buying Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and other digital assets.

COIN’s correlation with BTC on daily basis. Source: TradingView

But the COIN product is facing increasing competition with the arrival of crypto-based exchange-traded products (ETP), mining stocks, and similar crypto-enabled firms listed across Wall Street indexes. This may have reduced its demand as the go-to asset for gaining crypto exposure.

Related: Bitcoin faces new ‘milestone’ in 2022 as new forecast predicts BTC price ‘in the millions’

Additionally, COIN faces downside risks due to its depressive forecasts for FY22. Coinbase stated in its latest earnings report that the crypto volatility could turn 2022 into an unprofitable year, noting their adjusted EBITDA losses could come to be around $500 million if its monthly transaction users come at the lower end of its guidance range.

Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA margins. Source: JR Research

Jere Ong, the principal analyst and founder of JR Research, noted that 96% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q4/2021 came from the fees charged on retail transactions, which highlights its business model’s “inherent weakness.” Excerpts from his report:

“We believe it offers a short-term buying opportunity for speculative investors. But, we do not encourage investors to hold COIN stock for the long term unless you have a very high conviction of its execution.

Bitcoin’s risks are entirely different

Bitcoin is a different beast when compared to the shares of centralized company like Coinbase.

Absolute scarcity, censorship-resilient decentralized ledger, and gold-like properties as a potential hedge against-inflation in the digital age are just some of the concepts driving up BTC price today. 

As a result, analysts and strategists predict Bitcoin to reach anywhere from zero to “millions” per 1 BTC, depending on who you ask.

Elsewhere, most of the crypto-exposure stocks have also suffered more compared to Bitcoin. Namely, Nasdaq-listed mining firms Canaan, whose stock value fell by nearly 80% year-over-year, and Riot Blockchain, which dropped 67.55% in the same period.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin rally hopes diminish as pro traders flip bearish, retail interest at 12-month lows

Bitcoin rally hopes diminish as pro traders flip bearish, retail interest at 12-month lows

A symmetrical triangle shows support at $38,000 but pro traders have failed to add leverage long positions, according to exchanges’ data.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped in a symmetrical triangle for 56 days and the trend change could last until early-May, according to price technicals.

Currently, the support level stands at $38,000, while the triangle resistance for daily close stands at $43,600.

Bitcoin mining up, retail interest down

Bitcoin/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView

The week started with a positive achievement for the Bitcoin network as the Lightning Network capacity reached a record-high 3,500 BTC. This solution allows extremely cheap and instant transactions on a secondary layer, known as off-chain processing.

After cryptocurrency mining activities were banned in China in 2021, publicly-listed companies in the United States and Canada attracted most of this processing power.

In result, Bitcoin’s hash has recovered dramatically since the summer. It’s currently at all-time highs at over 200 EH/s. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin electricity consumption index, 45% of the global hash rate derives from North America

Furthermore, Whit Gibbs, the founder and CEO of Compass Mining, stated that “public mining companies definitely have an advantage when it comes to holding Bitcoin because they have access to the capital markets.” In addition, there is less selling pressure as miners’ reserves have been steadily increasing.

Global search for the “Bitcoin” term. Source: Google Trends

Meanwhile, searches for “Bitcoin” on Google are nearing their lowest levels in 12 months. This indicator could partially explain why Bitcoin is 41% below its $69,000 all-time high, i.e. public interest is low. Still, one needs to analyze how professional traders are positioning themselves, and there’s no better gauge than derivatives markets.

Still, one needs to analyze how professional traders are positioning themselves, and there’s no better gauge than derivatives markets.

Related: Crypto miner Hut 8 posts record revenue as BTC holdings surge 100%

Long-to-short data confirms lack of excitement

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have impacted specific derivatives instruments. By analyzing these top clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exhanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin might have jumped 8% since March 13, but professional traders did not increase their bullish bets according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, Huobi’s top traders’ ratio slightly decreased from 1.10 to the current 1.06 level.

Moreover, OKX data shows those traders reducing their longs from 1.26 to 1.03 significantly reducing their longs. Binance was the only exception, as top traders increased their longs from 1.05 to 1.13. Still, there has been a slight 0.06 decrease across the three major exchanges on average.

Can the triangle break to the upside?

From the perspective of the metrics discussed above, there is hardly any sense that Bitcoin price will flip bullish in the short-term. Data suggests that pro traders have reduced their long positions, as expressed by the basis rate and long-to-short ratio.

Moreover, the broader Google search trend signals retail interest is not picking up despite high inflation data and global socio-political uncertainties. For now, the odds of the symmetrical triangle breaking for the upside seem dim.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin risks final 'bear market capitulation' as rich investors continue BTC selloff — analyst

Bitcoin risks final ‘bear market capitulation’ as rich investors continue BTC selloff — analyst

But more inexperienced investors have been choosing to become long-term Bitcoin holders, limiting sell-side risks below $30,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo one last bear market capitulation if “whales” — addresses that hold more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin — ramp up their selling pressure, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.

Room for another Bitcoin drop?

Woo assessed the average price at which short-term investors entered the Bitcoin market across history and charted the daily change in the value. That resulted in a cost basis, a metric that signals when “inexperienced” traders sell BTC to “experienced” traders during a BTC free fall, which typically coincides with the market bottom.

The cost basis underwent significant dips during the previous bear markets, also before strong accumulation took place, as shown in the chart below. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s ongoing correction — from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $39,000 in March 2022 — has not resulted in a massive drop in its cost basis.

Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis change. Source: Willy Woo

“It’s inconclusive whether we have capitulated yet,” said Woo, adding that “there’s room for another drop” based on the cost basis signal.

Whales have been selling their BTC

Woo’s outlook appeared in line with the rising speculations about Bitcoin’s next big drop. For instance, Christopher Yates, the editor at AcheronInsights, said BTC’s price could crash to $30,000 due to the “deteriorating macro environment.”

“What makes me increasingly wary that the low is not yet in for 2022 is the fact that we are yet to see a capitulation style spike in volume that has occurred at all the recent lows in late 2019, early 2020 and mid-2021,” Yates wrote in his latest BTC analysis, adding:

“Though not a prerequisite for a market bottom, such a capitulation-like spike in volume helps to give us confidence for when such a bottom may be near.”

Data resource Ecoinometrics provided evidence of the demand gap between small and rich Bitcoin investors in its latest weekly report. For example, it noted that addresses that hold as much as 10 BTC have been accumulating the coins in the past 30 days.

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation and distribution. Source: Ecoinometrics

Conversely, those that hold more than 10 BTC have been distributing them.

Woo also noted that Bitcoin whales have been selling off their stash, thus maintaining the downward pressure on price. That means small investors have been absorbing the sell-side pressure, and so far preventing Bitcoin price from dipping below $30,000.

Additionally, Ecoinometrics analyst Nick, noted that the ongoing accumulation trend is “as sluggish as it gets,” adding that it could grow weaker after the Federal Reserve’s expected rate hike in March to tame rising inflation. Excerpts:

“To summarize, the Fed is in control. If they mess up their tightening cycle, all risk assets will tank. Bitcoin currently trades like a risk asset, so it is unlikely to be an exception.”

Ecoinometrics and Willy Woo’s analysis also show that inexperienced investors have not been dumping their coins, thus becoming long-term holders (LTH) in the process. 

Bitcoin is “most deflationary” in history

Meanwhile, another metric dubbed “LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio” is also corroborating the aforementioned theory, according to ARK Invest on-chain analyst David Puell. 

In detail, Bitcoin inflation points to LTH releasing their BTC into circulation faster than the natural sell-side of miners. Conversely, deflation suggests that LTHs have absorbed a proportional amount of the miner sell-side every day alongside the outstanding total supply.

Related: Crypto vs. physical: Musk-Saylor inflation debate boils down to scarcity

The attached chart below shows the LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio showing the period of inflationary outcomes flashed in red and deflationary readings in green.

Bitcoin LTH market inflation/deflation ratio. Source: ARK, Glassnode

“Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin, proportional to supply held by long-term holders (LTH), is at its most deflationary in history,” noted David Puell, an on-chain researcher at ARK Invest.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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BTC price struggles below $39K ahead of expected interest rate hike by the Fed

BTC price struggles below $39K ahead of expected interest rate hike by the Fed

Bitcoin consolidates below $39,000 as one trader warns about a possible squeeze on the daily chart, while a nine-year support level continues to hold strong.

The blockchain community got a bit of good news on March 14 after regulators in the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs rejected a ban on proof-of-work (PoW) based cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) that would have had significant ramifications for the crypto industry. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that despite the positive development, Bitcoin continues to trade sideways near the $39,000 level amid geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this week. CME Fed Fund futures prices suggest that traders are pricing in a March 16 rate hike with 100% confidence. 

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin ahead of any possible interest rate hike and what levels to keep an eye on when tracking the bull and bear market scenarios.

Price action has been “insanely boring”

The price action in the cryptocurrency market on March 14 has been “insanely boring,” according to markets analyst and Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart outlining one possible path BTC could follow in the coming days:

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Twitter

Referencing the chart, van de Poppe said:

“Fundamentals -> good steps. But, liquidity sides still the same. Sub $37,000 and we accelerate. Above $45,000 and I think we accelerate for Bitcoin.”

Ongoing consolidation pattern

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be continuing the consolidation pattern it has been following for the past two months as highlighted in the following chart posted by on-chain cryptocurrency analyst Will Clemente.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Twitter

As for what comes next with this pattern, options trader and pseudonymous Twitter user John Wick posted the following chart, noting that there is “a squeeze forming on the daily chart.” He further explained:

“Violent moves come out of the squeeze just as we see the last time this formed.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Twitter

Related: Law Decoded: Joe Biden’s executive order is finally upon us, and it doesn’t look too dreadful, March 7–14.

Looking to flip $38,000 into support

Analysis from a higher timeframe perspective was offered by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart pointing to the ongoing attempt to flip $38,000 into support for Bitcoin:

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

“New BTC Weekly Close shows that the Higher Low (green) is still intact and price is still in the process of trying to properly flip the $38,000 area into support (red),” Rekt Capital explained.

A final bit of reassurance for Bitcoin bulls was noted by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user TAnalyst, who posted the following chart showing that BTC is trading near a major support level:

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: Twitter

The analyst explanined:

“BTC — The 9-year support, never broken. No need to talk. [The] chart is self-explanatory.” 

The overall cryptocurrency market now stands at $1.718 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.8%, according to CoinMarketCap.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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$40K Bitcoin price is in reach, but analysts warn that a sweep of recent lows is likely

$40K Bitcoin price is in reach, but analysts warn that a sweep of recent lows is likely

Sky high inflation, fear over the Fed’s expected rate hike and exploding commodity prices are all possible reasons for BTC’s recent dip below $40,000.

There’s was no rest for weary crypto traders on March 10 as a blistering 7.9% CPI print emerged as the headline of the day, putting pressure on global financial markets and erasing the previous day’s gains in Bitcoin (BTC) as the price fell back below $40,000. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC sell-off kicked off in the early trading hours on Thursday and escalated into midday with the price hitting a low of $38,562 before dip buyers bid it back above support at $39,000.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what analysts have to say about the ongoing see-saw price action for BTC and what levels to keep an eye on for a bullish breakout or bearish downturn.

“Price compression precedes volatility”

Insight into the recent volatility for Bitcoin was offered by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Rekt Capital’, who posted the following chart noting that “BTC is still consolidating between the green higher low support and the blue 50-week EMA resistance.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

According to Rekt Capital, “the higher lows and lower highs are compressing price. Price compression precedes volatility.”

As for what it would take to reclaim the bullish narrative, Rekt Capital pointed to the green and blue exponential moving average (EMA) lines which have proved to be strong points of resistance over the past two weeks.

Rekt Captial said,

“To move higher inside its macro range, BTC needs to reclaim the two key bull market EMAs to confirm bullish momentum.”

BTC holders risk selling at a loss

The oscillating nature of BTC’s price action in recent weeks was discussed by research fund, Stack Funds, which noted in its current weekly report that “Bitcoin has whipsawed the past few weeks, trading within the $35,000 – $45,000 range with no strong directional momentum intact.”

According to Stack Funds, this recent price action “has been mainly news-driven” and the analysts see no relief in the near term as the conflict in Ukraine and the persistent rise of inflation continue to pose significant headwinds.

Evidence that traders have a low appetite for increasing exposure to the current market conditions can be found by looking at the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that indicates the aggregate gains and losses realized on a particular day.

Stack Funds noted that the long-term BTC holder SOPR “is trending towards its threshold value of 1.0,” an important level as it marks the defining line between selling at a profit or selling at a loss.

Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR. Source: Stack Funds

According to the report, the long-term holder SOPR has been trending down since Bitcoin’s price hit its peak in November 2021,” and currently it trades “around the 1.5 handle.”

During the two instances shown on the chart above where the SOPR trended and traded below the 1.0 threshold in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, “Bitcoin traded sideways and dipped further both times.”

Stack Funds said,

“Unless we see some positive catalyst in the markets or a reversal in the SOPR indicator, we expect sideways trading and possibly a potential dip in price action, at least in the short term.”

But it’s not all doom and gloom when it comes to Bitcoin price from an on-chain analysis point of view. In the following chart posted by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Plan C’, the analyst explains that “the number of Bitcoin accumulation addresses has gone parabolic over the last month.”

The number of unique BTC accumulation addresses. Source: Twitter

Plan C defined accumulation addresses as “addresses that have at least 2 incoming non-dust transfers and have NEVER spent funds BTC.”

Related: Bitcoin spoofs $40K breakout as US CPI inflation data conforms to 7.9% estimates

Not bullish below $46,000

As for the near-term outlook for Bitcoin, market analyst and Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe noted that things are not looking bullish below $46,000 and he thinks “the chances of taking these lows are quite significant.”

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

These short-term bearish sentiments were echoed recently by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who noted that the recent spike in BTC “came out of nowhere and lasted less than one hour with not much follow-through.”

Lifchitz said,

“BTC remains still stuck in the $33,000-$45,000 range. Without any follow-through in the next 48 hours and a possible break above $45,000 toward $50,000, BTC will probably keep on bouncing in the range.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.744 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.6%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Inflation spikes in Europe: What do Bitcoiners, politicians and financial experts think?

Inflation spikes in Europe: What do Bitcoiners, politicians and financial experts think?

Bitcoin‘s role as an inflation hedge is popular, with one expert stating that ”you don‘t need Bitcoin until you do.”

Rising prices are grabbing headlines all over the world. Across the pond in the United States, inflation recently broke a 40-year record. The situation is severe in Europe, with prices rising over 5% across the Eurozone and 4.9% in the United Kingdom

While prices rise, Bitcoin (BTC) is flatlining at around $39,000. It poses many questions: Is Bitcoin an effective hedge against rising prices, what role can Bitcoin play in a high inflation environment and did Bitcoiners know that inflation was coming?

Experts from the world of Bitcoin, finance and even European politics responded to these questions, sharing their views with Cointelegraph about the alarming price rises in Europe.

From data analysts Kaiko’s monthly report, the Bitcoin price marched ahead of inflation, implying that Bitcoiners may have foreseen a rise in prices and stacked sats to hedge against inflation.

Danny Scott, CEO of the U.K.’s leading Bitcoin exchange CoinCorner, backs this argument. He is not “surprised at the inflation levels we are seeing around the world.”

“This has been in the making for the best part of a decade and COVID just expedited it. True inflation is being brushed under the carpet to keep a positive spin on how inflation is ‘under control.’”

Another Bitcoiner, this time a member of parliament, is again “not surprised” by inflation running hot. The Belgian key opinion leader, Christophe De Beukelaer, was the first European politician to take his salary in Bitcoin.

He told Cointelegraph that “when we inject trillions, as we have done, at some point you have to pay the bill.” But, it doesn’t just take a financial toll, “people don‘t see it and don‘t realize it, but inflation has a major impact on their well-being.”

Nicolas Bertrand, a Global Blockchain Business Council ambassador and financial executive hailing from Borsa Italia and the London Stock Exchange, told Cointelegraph:

 “Expansive monetary policies are contributing to higher levels of inflation and I would not be surprised to see this situation lasting for longer than people expect.” 

For De Beukelaer, however, he reckons that “at some point, we will experience a big monetary crisis.”

With the crisis in Ukraine now compounding the problem, what does this mean for short-term inflation levels? Ambre Soubiran, CEO of Kaiko told Cointelegraph that “surging commodities prices are likely to keep inflationary pressures strong and dampen growth due to Europe‘s strong economic ties to Russia.” 

She added that the current price action in which Bitcoin has slid from highs of $69,000 is likely due to the fact that “markets are pricing out a rate hike from the European Central Bank this year.”

Inflation is here to stay so should you HODL Bitcoin? 

Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is a popular narrative in the United States. In Europe, the jury is out or, as De Beukelaer mentions, “it’s hard to say with certainty.” That said, “since its growth is limited and transparent, it can be expected to be an effective bulwark against inflation.”

For Bertrand, with his wealth of expertise in legacy financial markets, the situation is clear:

“Contrary to fiat currencies other widely available investment assets and even gold, Bitcoin’s value cannot be negatively impacted by the issuance of new coins. This constitutes a solid base and makes Bitcoin an interesting asset in a context of higher inflation.”

Nonetheless, there are a few caveats. There is not “enough data to prove that Bitcoin is statistically a good hedge against inflation.” Moreover, Bertrand shared that we are not “yet there in terms of adoption to consider Bitcoin a good hedge.”

Soubiran has a similar view, explaining that “Bitcoin has moved in tandem with risk assets over the past few months and is unlikely to decouple in the current uncertain monetary environment.”

In contrast, Bendik Norheim Schei, head of research at Arcane Crypto, and Scott are laser-eyed focused on the role of Bitcoin in an inflationary environment. Schei told Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin is a great option for those who want to bet on inflation running crazy. Or, rather, hedge against that scenario. A scarce asset with a fixed supply is a strong alternative if global economies move into extreme inflation levels.”

For Scott, “Bitcoin solves the problem of separating money from the state but comes with many other benefits such as a hedge against inflation in a decentralized and global manner.”

Given that in some large emerging countries like Argentina “pass 50% inflation, people look for solutions — Bitcoin being one of them.” In a note of warning, he surmises, “you don‘t need Bitcoin until you do.”

Bitcoin and an inflationary future

Whether Bitcoin acts as a store of value or an inflationary hedge is up for discussion, but according to De Beukelaer, the important thing is that “we have a choice.”  If a citizen “no longer has confidence in the euro, the dollar or other fiat, he can turn to Bitcoin/crypto. And, that‘s positive. Power on its own always ends up doing stupid things. It is healthy that a monetary counter-power appears to balance it to cure it of its excesses.”

Bertrand also believes that balance is key. “As always, one needs to think about their consolidated asset allocation very carefully and with the concept of balance in mind.”

However, with “purchasing power being eroded by half over 10 years,” according to De Beuekalaer, there’s an added level of pressure. In essence, if there was ever a time to get smart on Bitcoin, it’s now. 

Scott is succinct. “Education is still massively key, not just on Bitcoin but on finance and the economy as a whole.” Incidentally, Cointelegraph has put together a handy explainer on Bitcoin and inflation.

Schei has the last word on the seminal cryptocurrency:

“This is a long-term bet on an asset that will thrive in a world where large fiat currencies become valueless because of uncontrolled money printing and extreme inflation.”

With more and more thought leaders and billionaire investors coming out in favor of Bitcoin or claiming that fiat currency is going to zero, it might be worth hodling onto some.

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