The latest U.S. inflation data is poised for release this week as Bitcoin price action spikes higher after a promising weekly close.
Can the bulls win out? Momentum appears to be strong across crypto, but a host of potential stumbling blocks lie in the way.
With fresh U.S. inflation data due, the macro picture could yet upset the status quo, while sellers likewise show no sign of budging to allow reclaim of levels above $25,000.
Amid continued claims that Bitcoin is enjoying nothing more than a “bear market rally,” Cointelegraph takes a look at the state of play on the market as the new week begins.
These five factors will be worth bearing in mind when considering where Bitcoin price action could be going over the coming days.
Unlike recent weeks, Bitcoin allowed traders to breathe a sigh of relief at the Aug. 7 weekly close.
The close in itself was impressive, constituting Bitcoin’s highest weekly candle close since June — a firm break from the previous weekly downtrend — data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and USD/?exchange=BINANCE” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>TradingView shows.
In addition, ’s price defended its key 200-week moving average (MA) two closes in a row, cementing the likelihood of that trendline now forming support. This comes despite multiple retests during the week, with the 200-week MA sitting at around $22,900.
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 8, 2022
Prior to the close, some were already predicting volatility.
im surprised the market hasn’t moved yet
Maybe will this week#Bitcoin
— Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) August 7, 2022
For popular trading account TraderSZ on Twitter, this would take the form of a “big violent move,” one which ended up being to the upside.
“I know it’s hard to convince you that $ has touched the Bottom. But you can’t ignore it. Never Break This Line in History,” fellow account Jibon added alongside a weekly chart featuring another MA trendline.
Looking at possible targets, anywhere between $25,000 and $28,000, commentators believe, with Cointelegraph already reporting on one trader’s expectations of a $30,000 retest.
Seems like a band test is coming the following weeks.
— Trend Rider (@TrendRidersTR) August 8, 2022
Analyzing separate data governing two exponential moving averages (EMAs), meanwhile, trading resource Stockmoney Lizards agreed with Jibon about a macro bottom already being complete for Bitcoin.
“Cycles repeat. Shortly after EMA bands crossing, cycle low is in. From there, the uptrend is close,” it summarized on Aug. 7:
“Mid-term target 38k – 40k which be in this descending resistance level area. After this, we’ll see a breakout and another bull run.”
$40,000, while lofty by today’s standards, is also not without its adherents — even as part of an extended bear market relief rally.
U.S. inflation picture compicated by falling commodities
The main macro event in what is otherwise a sleepy summer month is due in the coming days.
U.S. inflation will become top of the list of discussion topics in crypto and beyond on Aug. 10 as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July hit the radar.
The schedule is already ingrained in the minds of risk asset traders everywhere — while not indicative of a specific trend in and of themselves, CPI releases are -price-dips-under-19k” data-amp=”https://cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tanks-on-highest-cpi-data-since-1981-as--price-dips-under-19k/amp”>reliably accompanied by market volatility-price-dips-under-19k” data-amp=”https://cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tanks-on-highest-cpi-data-since-1981-as--price-dips-under-19k/amp”> before, during and after the fact.
Most anticipated data this week is CPI on Wednesday, estimates are 8.7, IF it comes in above we are back to crashy mode.
— Tom (@TradingThomas3) August 6, 2022
The question is complex: Fuel prices began decreasing in July, while CPI components such as rent prices conversely hit all-time highs.
The “sharp decline” in gasoline prices will create a “strong drag” on headline #CPI next week.
(via Morgan Stanley / Zentner) pic.twitter.com/fuJ0u7rwtO
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 5, 2022
“This could change, obviously, but the trend is down, which suggests that we are past peak inflation,” he said during Tesla’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders last week.
So why the public ruse to “fight” 9% #Inflation” with 2.5% FFR?
Simple: The Fed sees a #Recession coming and needs to raise rates today so they’ll have soming—anything—to cut tomorrow.
— Egon von Greyerz (@GoldSwitzerland) August 7, 2022
After months of key interest rate increases, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will not make a decision on further monetary policy moves until September. More broadly, the central bank is in a bind, commentators argue, being unable to hike rates much further without unintended side effects.
Old hands hodl on
While this is nothing unusual, it remains interesting to see how long-term holders’ resolve will be tested should further gains enter.
In automated updates this week, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that the amount of the supply last active in the past 24 hours is declining on average, potentially reflecting a lack of knee-jerk reactions to price moves.
#Bitcoin &src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>$ Amount of Supply Last Active 24h (1d MA) just reached a 1-month low of 147,020.447
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) August 8, 2022
Likewise, the seven-day MA of median on-chain transaction volume reached one-month lows of its own on the day, beating its previous lows from Aug. 1.
On higher timeframes, the trend is also visibly skewed toward pragmatism. The portion of the supply which has stayed dormant in its wallet for three years or more continues to increase, reaching new all-time highs of 38.426% on the day.
The changes are more easily viewed on the HODL Waves metric, which provides an overview of what proportion of the supply has remained dormant for specific lengths of time.
2022, it shows, has seen a marked increase in coins stationary for between one and two years.
Coinbase order book is “dead”
On the topic of hodling, current conditions appear to be firmly lackluster for exchanges amid little genuine interest in buying crypto assets.
While the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, announced a partnership with U.S. exchange Coinbase last week, its order book remains “dead,” one commentator puts it, with retail interest absent this summer.
Here’s another visualisation of this pretty crazy imbalance.
From 20k to 10k: ₿12000 in bids
From 20k to 30k: ₿2000 in asks pic.twitter.com/6iKW1oXecr
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) August 7, 2022
Data from the Binance order book supplied by on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators likewise highlights gaps in activity much above $24,000.
This can change quickly, however, as spot price moves up and down its trading range.
Sentiment “unironically” marking price bottoms
Related: -flow-theta-qnt-mkr” data-amp=”https://cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/cointelegraph.com/news/top-5-cryptocurrencies-to-watch-this-week--flow-theta-qnt-mkr/amp”>Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: , FLOW, THETA, QNT, MKR
As noted by research firm Santiment and macro analyst Alex Krueger, mainstream interest in Bitcoin bear markets in fact tends to peak just after, not before, macro asset price bottoms.
Lo and behold, the 2022 Bear Market Rally!
Historically people googles for “Bear Market Rally” right after the market bottoms (granted, the sample size is just two).
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) August 7, 2022
Even mentions of classic crypto-crowd terms such as “moon” and “Lambo” peak once the worst of the price drawdown is done, it concluded in findings published last week.
“During the crypto slide in 2022, the crowd has been calling for moon and lambo in a sarcastic fashion whenever prices drop again,” researchers explained on Twitter:
According to the sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, meanwhile, support is building above the market’s “extreme fear” zone, which has been absent since mid-July.
The Index measures 30/100 on Aug. 8, unmoved versus the day prior and representative of “fear” being the overall market mood. “Extreme fear” corresponds to a score of less than 25.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.