The creator of the popular ‘Bitcoin Power Law’ has unveiled a chart detailing his price model’s exact BTC price targets for the next several market cycles.
The model predicts that Bitcoin will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026.
What Is The Bitcoin Power Law?
The Bitcoin Power Law is a long-term price model that forecasts Bitcoin’s future market value as if it were bound by the laws of physics. The man behind the model – Giovanni Santostasi – is a former physics professor, who believes Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory follows a “power law” relationship with time.
“Price is a power law, hash rate is a power law, adoption is a power law,” wrote Santostasi to Twitter on Monday. “We even understand why and have a full Theory about it.”
A power law is a perfect relationship between two quantities such that one is proportional to a fixed power of the other. One example is the law of planetary motion, which states that a planet’s distance from the sun is directly proportional to the time it takes to fully orbit around the sun.
Power laws have even been discovered in the financial realm, having been used to predict the average waiting time for a stock price’s directional change.
Because such laws maintain themselves at any scale, the Bitcoin Power Law Theory is supposed to stay relevant across any span of time, and can forecast the asset’s price range indefinitely. For example, the model expects BTC to peak at $1,212,799 in November 2033, before retracing back to $802,399 in December 2034.
Santostasi insists that the Power Law model is no “model” at all, but a “ full and coherent theory of what Bitcoin is and how it works.” For instance, the price floor of the power law is not based on technical analysis, but instead on the “physics of mining” and a point of “miner capitulation.”
“We actually put a lot of time in developing meaningful indicators that use both the power law and the cyclic nature of Bitcoin using the Bitcoin clock,” the physicist wrote on Tuesday.
What About the Stock to Flow Model?
Santostasi is a non-believer in other popular price models, such as Plan B’s “stock-to-flow” model, which predicts exponential gains for Bitcoin in the future without diminishing returns. The model attempts to forecast Bitcoin’s price as a function of its diminishing supply inflation following each Bitcoin halving.
Technical indicators, such as Bitcoin’s “Pi Cycle Top” indicator for identifying market peaks, have been “lucky” in achieving historical accuracy, he claims.
“S2F is deeply wrong conceptually, logically, mathematically, from a construction point of view,” Santostasi said on Tuesday. “it is almost poison because gives really the wrong information about Bitcoin, basically a magic trick and a lie.”
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