AVAX traders anticipate a new ATH even as Avalanche DApp use slows

AVAX traders anticipate a new ATH even as Avalanche DApp use slows

AVAX price posted a multi-month higher high, signaling that the altcoin’s downtrend is over, but a decline in network activity could weigh on the current rally.

Avalanche (AVAX) jumped 43.8% between March 14 and March 31 to a $97.50 daily close, which is the highest level since Jan. 5. This layer-1 scaling solution uses a proof-of-stake model and has amassed $9 billion in total value locked (TVL) deposited on the network’s smart contracts.

AVAX token/USD at FTX. Source: TradingView

Subnet adoption propels the recent price rally

Some analysts attribute the rally to Avalanche’s incentive program to accelerate the adoption of subnets which was announced on March 9. According to the Avalanche Foundation, subnets enable functions that are only possible with “network-level control and open experimentation.”

The program will allocate up to four million AVAX, worth roughly $340 million, to fund decentralized applications focused on gaming, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and financial applications (DeFi).

Wes Cowan, managing director of DeFi at Valkyrie Investments, added that “Avalanche’s subnet with KYC infrastructure, will be a massive step forward for institutional adoption.”

Even with the good news, AVAX price is still 33% below its $147 all-time high and the token holds a $26.3 billion market capitalization. As a comparison, the market cap of Terra (LUNA) stands at $38.1 billion, and Solana (SOL) has a $43.8 billion total value.

Avalanche is also Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatible and it is not plagued by the $15 average transaction fees and network congestion that impact the Ethereum network.

Related: Traders predict $3,800 Ethereum, but multiple data points suggest otherwise

The use of Avalanche’s smart contracts is in decline

Avalanche’s primary DApp metric started to display weakness in March after the network‘s TVL dropped below 94 million AVAX.

Avalanche Total Value Locked, AVAX. Source: DefiLlama

The chart above shows how Avalanche‘s DApp deposits peaked at 132.9 million AVAX on March 14, but drastically declined to the lowest level since Jan. 3. In dollar terms, the current $9 billion TVL is 24% below its $12.2 billion all-time high in December 2021.

Meanwhile, Terra’s TVL increased by 116% between January and March 2022, reaching $19.8 billion. Similarly, Waves’ smart contract deposits increased from $730 million to $4.5 billion in the same period.

To confirm whether the TVL drop in Avalanche is troublesome, one should analyze DApp usage metrics. Some DApps, such as games and collectibles, do not require large deposits so the TVL metric is irrelevant in those cases.

Avalanche DApps 30-day data. Source: DappRadar

As shown by DappRadar, on April 1 the number of Avalanche network addresses interacting with decentralized applications declined by 16% versus the previous month. In comparison, the Solana network faced a 6% user increase, while Ethereum declined by 11%.

Even though Avalanche’s TVL has been hit the hardest compared to similar smart contract platforms, there is solid network use in the decentralized finance (DeFi) segment.

The above data suggest that Avalanche is losing ground versus competing chains. Given that AVAX rallied 43.8% in 17 days, some holders might feel uncomfortable if the decentralized application network continues to post weak TVL and DApp usage data.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Price analysis 4/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Price analysis 4/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bulls set their targets on new highs now that the brief consolidation phase in BTC and altcoins appears to have ended.

Bitcoin (BTC) has clawed back much of the losses that took place in January and now the focus of traders shifts to April, which has historically been a strong month for the cryptocurrency. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has closed April in the red on onlthree occasions and the worst monthly loss was a 3.46% drop in 2015. 

Although history favors the bulls, the Whale Shadows indicator has noticed that more than 11,000 Bitcoin has left a wallet in which it had been lying dormant for seven to ten years. The movement of similar-sized quantities from dormant accounts has generally resulted in a major top, according to independent market analyst Phillip Swift.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Along with keeping an eye on the crypto markets, traders should also track the performance of the U.S. stock markets for clues because Bitcoin has been closely correlated to the equity markets for the past several weeks.

Could bulls clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins and extend the strong recovery from the lows? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($48,291) on March 29 and dipped to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($43,935) on April 1. The long tail on April 1’s candlestick suggests that buyers are accumulating on dips.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the 200-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $52,000 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.

Alternatively, if the price once again turns down from the 200-day SMA, it will suggest that bears have erected a strong barrier at this level. The pair could thereafter consolidate between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA for a few days.

A break and close below the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. That could result in a decline to the 50-day SMA ($41,461).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 200-day SMA ($3,488) on March 29 but the shallow correction and the sharp recovery suggest strong demand at lower levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($3,098) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control.

If buyers propel the price above the 200-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up further and the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $4,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from the overhead resistance, it will suggest that bears are unwilling to relent. The bears will then try to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,860).

BNB/USDT

BNB broke above the overhead resistance at $445 on March 30 and 31 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($413) on April 1 but the strong rebound off the level suggests strong buying by the bulls at lower levels.

If bulls push and sustain the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($467) and then make a dash to the psychological level at $500.

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and plunges below the moving averages. The pair could then remain range-bound between $350 and $445 for a few more days.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) had been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the critical level at $122. The long wick on the March 31 candlestick indicated selling at higher levels but the bears could not sustain the price below $122 on April 1.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that the bulls aggressively purchased on the minor dip. The buyers have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $122, indicating the start of a potential new uptrend.

The SOL/USDT pair could now challenge the 200-day SMA ($150). If bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be $163.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above $122, it will suggest that the demand dries up at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA ($103).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on March 30, which resolved in favor of the bears on March 31 with a sharp down move. This suggests that the buyers who may have purchased at lower levels closed their positions aggressively.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.82) is flattening out and the RSI has dropped close to the midpoint, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be weakening. If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.78), the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the next support at $0.70.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will try to drive the pair above $0.86 and again challenge the resistance at $0.91. A break and close above this level could open the gates for a possible rally to the psychological level at $1.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) turned down from the overhead resistance at $1.26, suggesting that the bears are defending the level with vigor. The price could now drop to the 20-day EMA ($1.05), which is an important level to keep an eye on.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will make one more attempt to push the ADA/USDT pair above $1.26. If they manage to do that, the pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This setup will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.

The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($1.50) and $1.63 where the bears may mount a strong resistance. This bullish view will be negated in the short term if the price breaks and sustains below the 50-day SMA ($0.95).

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token turned down after hitting a new all-time high on March 30, indicating that the bears are attempting to stall the uptrend. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to break below $96. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to flip this level into support.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($95) suggests advantage to buyers but the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that the bullish momentum could be weakening. If buyers push the price above $111, the uptrend could resume. The LUNA/USDT pair could then rally to $125.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders are aggressively booking profits. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($80).

Related: ApeCoin risks another massive selloff as APE drops 70% in two weeks — Here’s why

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) broke above the overhead resistance at $98 on March 30 and 31 but could not sustain the higher levels. This may have invited profit-booking by the short-term traders.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Although the bears pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($87), the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to drive and sustain the price above the overhead zone between $98 and $100.

If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $120. Conversely, if the price once again turns down from the overhead resistance, it will suggest strong selling at higher levels. That could pull the price to the moving averages.

DOT/USDT

The failure to break above the $23 resistance may have attracted profit-booking by the short-term traders in Polkadot (DOT). That pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($20) on April 1.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The strong rebound off the 20-day EMA suggests buying on dips. The bulls will now make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $23. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend and the price could rally to the 200-day SMA ($29).

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened. That could pull the price down to $19 and if this level gives way, the next stop could be $16.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from $0.15 on March 28 and dropped to the moving averages. This is an important support for the buyers to defend if they want the bullish sentiment to remain intact.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the current level with strength, the bulls will attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.15. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17. The marginally rising 20-day EMA ($0.13) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a minor advantage to buyers.

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if bears sink and sustain the price below the moving averages. Such a move could open the doors for a possible drop to the critical support zone at $0.12 to $0.10.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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DeFi Technologies subsidiary Valour surpasses $274 million in AUM

DeFi Technologies subsidiary Valour surpasses $274 million in AUM

Due to regulatory policies, its ETPs are only currently trading on European exchanges.

On Wednesday, DeFi Technologies announced that its subsidiary Valour reached $274.2 million in assets under management. The company offers various cryptocurrency-denominated exchange-traded products, or ETPs, listed on European exchanges.

Cointelegraph previously reported that Valour launched two such ETPs involving Uniswap (UNI) and Polkadot (DOT) last year. For each exchange-traded product of Valour that is bought and sold on the stock exchange, Valour purchases or sells the equivalent amount of the underlying digital assets. Some of the ETPs do not charge management fees.

The firm’s ETPs include $95.2 million in BTC Zero, $67.4 million in ETH Zero, $43.4 million in ADA Valour, $24.4 million in Valour DOT, $38.5 million in SOL Valour, and a small number of funds in Uniswap (UNI), Terra (LUNA) and Avalanche (AVAX). The total sum represents a growth of 91% compared to its total AUM of $143.5 million in May of last year. Regarding the development, Russell Starr, CEO of DeFi Technologies, commented:

“Our team has done a tremendous job of planting seeds for future growth by launching eight ETPs across several exchanges in Europe that enable individuals and institutions to invest in digital assets. […] We are very excited about the company’s growth trajectory.”

DeFi Technologies seeks to facilitate investors’ access to namesake decentralized finance via its ETPs, venture investment and infrastructure arm, which provides governance for blockchain networks to run independent nodes. Its shares are publicly traded on Canada’s NEO Exchange.

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Price analysis 3/30: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Price analysis 3/30: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

BTC and altcoins could enter a short consolidation phase before retesting their breakout levels, a sign that the current price action could be a buying opportunity.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally is taking a breather near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and that has resulted in what is either a minor pullback or consolidation in BTC and select altcoins. 

In the last few days, Terraform Labs has been on a Bitcoin buying spree. The wallet address speculated to be that of Terra, has received $139 million worth of Bitcoin on March 30, taking its total to about $1.5 billion in BTC.

With Terra breathing down its neck, MicroStrategy seems to have taken up the challenge. The business intelligence firm’s subsidiary MacroStrategy has secured a $205 million loan from Silvergate, which will be used to purchase Bitcoin, cover general corporate expenses and pay the necessary fees and interest on the loan.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The buying interest is not limited to the two companies. CoinShares data showed that institutional investors pumped in $193 million into digital asset investment products last week, the largest inflow since early December 2021.

With institutional investors buying in large quantities, could Bitcoin and the major altcoins break above their overhead resistance levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose to the 200-day SMA ($48,288) on March 28 but the bulls could not push the price above it. The buyers again tried to clear the overhead hurdle on March 29 but failed.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will now try to pull the price to the immediate support at $45,400. If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to thrust the BTC/USDT pair above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could start its journey to $52,000.

The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($43,531) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control.

This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could extend its stay inside the ascending channel for a few more days.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $3,411 on March 29 but the bulls could not clear the obstacle at the 200-day SMA ($3,488). This indicates that bears have not yet given up and are attempting to stall the recovery at the 200-day SMA.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains below $3,411, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($3,042). A strong rebound off this level will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.

The bulls will then again try to propel the price above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally toward $4,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders may be rushing to the exit. That could pull the pair down to the 50-day SMA ($2,853).

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin’s (BNB) tight range trading between $425 and $445 has resolved to the upside, indicating that bulls have absorbed the supply and are trying to gain the upper hand.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($409) and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that bulls are in control. If they sustain the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($467) and later to $500.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $425, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then oscillate between $350 and $445 for a few more days.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.91 on March 28 but the bears did not allow the price to sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears are aggressively defending the zone between $0.91 and $1.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to sustain the price above $0.86. If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could again rise to $0.91. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to the psychological level at $1.

Conversely, if the price sustains below $0.86, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then drop to $0.70.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) is facing resistance at $1.26 as seen from the long wick on the candlestick on March 28 and 29. A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($1) and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel and sustain the price above $1.26, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($1.51) and thereafter rally to $1.60.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $1.15, the bears will try to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could sink the pair to $0.74.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $96 on March 28. Although the long wick on the day’s candlestick showed selling near $100, the bulls did not allow the price to break back below $96.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buying resumed on March 29 and the bulls thrust the price above the all-time high at $105. If bulls sustain the price above $105, the buying momentum could pick up and the LUNA/USDT pair may rally to $115 and later to $125.

A minor negative is that the RSI is showing signs of forming a negative divergence. If the price breaks and sustains below $105, the pair could drop to $96. This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could aggravate selling. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($78).

SOL/USDT

After sustaining above $106 for the past two days, Solana (SOL) has risen above the overhead resistance at $122, indicating strong buying by the bulls.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the price above $122, the SOL/USDT pair could start a new uptrend, which could reach the 200-day SMA ($150). This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome it, the rally could reach $180.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $106, it will suggest that the break above $122 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to the moving averages and remain stuck between $81 and $122 for a few more days.

Related: Bitcoin sentiment hits ‘greed’ in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullback

AVAX/USDT

The long wick on the candlestick of the past two days shows that bears are defending the level at $98. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed Avalanche (AVAX) to drop to the 20-day EMA ($85). This suggests that the traders are in no hurry to exit their positions.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls are in control. If buyers thrust the price above the $98 to $100 resistance zone, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $120.

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if bears sink and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA ($81). Such a move will suggest that the pair could extend its stay inside the $65 to $98 range for a few more days.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been facing stiff resistance at $23 for the past three days but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears. This suggests that the bulls expect a break above the overhead resistance.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($20) is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If bulls drive and sustain the price above $23, the DOT/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 200-day SMA ($29).

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened. That could keep the pair range-bound between $16 and $23 for the next few days.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above $0.15 on March 28 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling at higher levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $0.15, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may spend some more time inside the range between $0.17 and $0.10.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Wonky Mars Protocol launch shows ecosystem expansion may not add to network value

Wonky Mars Protocol launch shows ecosystem expansion may not add to network value

Terra’s “liquidity bootstrapping pools” were meant to prevent DeFi protocol token pump and dumps at launch but the model is not as effective as expected.

New protocols are launching every day on different networks in the crypto space and the trend is likely to continue through this year. When looking at the top five networks by total value locked (TVL) — Ethereum (ETH), Terra (LUNA), Binance Smart Chain (BSC), Avalanche (AVAX) and Solana (SOL) — according to data from DeFiLlama, Ethereum have 579 protocols (including L1 and L2); Terra has 25, BSC has 348, Avalanche and Solana have 187 and 64 protocols, respectively. The low number of protocols and high TVL from Terra surely stand out as the outlier here.

Terra’s TVL reached an all-time high at $20 billion in December 2021 before dropping to $13 billion during the January 2022 crash. To date, the ecosystem has managed to boost its liquidity back to $26 billion.

With only 25 protocols built on the chain, Terra has attracted enough TVL to become the second largest network after Ethereum. The recent announcement of backing UST (Terra’s stablecoin) with $1 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) reserves and the Mars protocol launch coincide nicely with the sudden rise in LUNA price at the end of February 2022.

The rise in the chain’s governance token is often an indication of confidence in the network and the protocols, but does a new protocol launch always add value to the network and stimulate user activity and engagement?

Let’s take a look at how the price of LUNA changed when new protocols launched on Terra; then investigate how the most recently launched Mars and Astroport protocols impacted native token prices, user engagement and LUNA price.

LUNA is the tool that ensures the UST-USD peg

Before looking into the correlation between LUNA price and the new protocol launch, it is important to understand the LUNA-UST mechanism that ensures the peg of stablecoin UST to USD.

LUNA is used as a counterpart to UST to maintain the price peg of UST to USD. When UST is worth more than $1, it means there is a greater demand for UST than the supply in the Terra ecosystem. So the protocol incentivizes participants to burn LUNA and mint UST to meet the increasing demand for UST until the value of 1 UST is equal to $1. On the contrary, when UST’s price is lower than $1, the supply of UST is larger than the demand so UST will be burnt and LUNA will be minted until UST’s value reaches $1 again.

By regulating the supply of LUNA in the ecosystem, Terra can effectively keep UST pegged to USD. This mechanism also causes LUNA’s price to increase as the demand for UST increases.

LUNA price is highly correlated with new protocol launches

Very often during the initial pre-launch phases of a new protocol, there is a sudden increase in demand for UST. This is because participants wish to obtain airdrop incentive tokens from the new protocol and they are often asked to lock up UST to provide enough liquidity for the protocol when it launches.

The increasing demand in UST from participants during pre-launch phases of the new protocol causes more UST to be minted and more LUNA to be burnt, resulting in a sudden increase in LUNA price during these pre-launch phases.

Here is an example of the recently launched Mars protocol, where LUNA price jumped from sub $50 to over $60 in two days right after the new protocol pre-launch phases started.

LUNA February 2022 price. Source: CoinGecko

Here is another example of how LUNA price went up from sub $60 to over $90 in December 2021 right after Astroport’s pre-launch phases started.

LUNA November to December 2021 price. Source: Flipside Crypto

The new protocol launch in the past two recent cases did help push up LUNA’s price, which can be seen as a positive effect on the Terra network. But to know whether they add value to the Terra ecosystem, one needs to also look at the protocol’s token price and user engagements after the launch.

ASTRO price and volume after the launch

Astroport accumulated $90 million in the lockdrop, but the token price of ASTRO has experienced a downturn after the launch of the protocol due to the bearish market environment at the beginning of 2022. The price has picked up since the beginning of March and now is trading its launch valuation.

ASTRO/UST price since Astroport launch. Source: TradingView

The daily number of swaps on Astroport has been gradually increasing since the launch for about three months, indicating active user engagement on the platform after the airdrop.

Astroport total swap count. Source: Flipside Crypto

The total trading volume transacted on Astroport has also shown a strong increasing trend since the launch, which peaked in the middle of March.

Astroport trading volume in USD. Source: Flipside Crypto

The Astroport launch was successful and the post launch data also show that the platform has been able to maintain user activities and engagements. The story of Mars protocol is however quite different.

Mars price and volume after the launch

Immediately after the Mars launch on March 7, 2022, MARS token price dropped off a cliff within an hour from 1.65 UST to 0.7 UST. This is very different from the price reaction right after Astroport’s launch. So what happened to MARS?

It turns out that the protocol couldn’t load successfully in the web browser at the time when it was scheduled to go live on March 7, 2022, 11 am GMT. Users who attempted to claim the airdrop tokens through the protocol’s website failed to do so and had to wait until the website became functional.

However, sophisticated users who knew how to interact with the Terra chain directly called the claim rewards method on Terra station and managed to claim MARS ahead of the non-tech savvy users. They dumped the tokens immediately in the market, causing an immediate drop in price.

MARS/UST price 4-hour. Source: TradingView

To explain a bit more in detail how one could claim MARS by interacting with Terra chain, the investor first needs to know Mars protocol’s airdrop contract address, which is publicly available on etfinder; then they need to know which method in the code to call on Terra Station to claim the rewards, which is the tricky part.

Since the protocol just launched, the code is often not available in the public domain for people to find the claim method. But a wild guess most of the tech-savvy investors had was that Mars protocol was forked from Astroport. So the claim method was highly likely the same as Astroport’s. It turned out to be true and these investors managed to claim the MARS airdrop using the same function “claim_rewards_and_unlock” on the chain.

Three hours after the official launch time, Mars protocol’s website was still not functioning and the airdrop MARS still couldn’t be claimed from the website. The price of MARS had already dropped to $0.64 from $1.65 — a 60% drop in three hours and nothing could be done if the investor did not know how to interact with Terra chain.

Let’s have a look at the two major products on Mars protocol right after the launch. Red Bank, the saving and lending space, has failed to maintain user engagements after the airdrop. The number of transactions peaked on the third day after the launch to almost 5,000 a day and has been dropping since then. The daily volume in USD has also been decreasing since day 1 from $212 million to $13 million as of March 27.

Mars Red Bank transaction count and volume in USD. Source: Flipside Crypto

Fields is the space in Mars protocol for yield farming strategies where users can provide liquidity to ANC-UST, LUNA-UST and MIR-UST. Fields’ historical transaction and volume after the launch show a similar story. The product struggles to maintain the same level of activity as the launch day and the number of transactions is 1/8 of what it was at the peak while the volume in USD is less than 1/30 of the launch day.

Mars Fields transaction count and volume in USD. Source: Flipside Crypto

Although it’s not certain that the incident at the launch affected Mars protocol’s user engagements and confidence, the data shows the protocol has been struggling to attract volumes and activities since the launch.

A new protocol launch does not necessarily always add value to the network, as shown in the comparison between Astroport and Mars, which have very similar pre-launch strategies but very different outcomes post launch.

Incidents on the launch day jeopardize not only the protocol, but could also affect user confidence in the ecosystem. An airdrop incident allowing only the tech savvy investors to claim first will drive away the vast majority of future investors. New protocols launching on Terra chain in the future should make greater efforts to prevent such incidents, otherwise investors’ long-term interests and trusts could evaporate sooner than one could imagine.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Price analysis 3/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Price analysis 3/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing signs of starting a new uptrend, indicating that the sentiment may have turned from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

Bitcoin (BTC) and several altcoins surprised many with their newfound strength during the weekend. Bitcoin’s rally easily sliced through the $45,900 level, which according to Glassnode was an area of resistance because several investors had purchased near that level when Bitcoin was declining after hitting its all-time high in November.

Bitcoin’s strength may have attracted buying in several altcoins, which are still languishing below their 52-week high. The rally in Bitcoin and the bottom fishing in altcoins has boosted investor sentiment, pushing the Crypto Fear and Greed Index into the “greed” territory.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Interestingly, the crypto markets have held a large part of their gains despite the tepid performance of the U.S. stock markets on March 28. This suggests that the crypto markets may be in the early stages of decoupling from the equity markets.

Could buyers sustain the momentum and clear the overhead resistance levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin hesitated on March 26 as seen from the inside-day candlestick. This indicated indecision among the bulls and the bears. This uncertainty resolved to the upside on March 27 as the bulls regrouped and propelled the price above the overhead resistance at $45,400.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought zone for the first time since October 2021. This suggests that the momentum favors the buyers.

The bears may attempt to stall the up-move at the resistance line of the ascending channel but if bulls overcome this barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $50,000 and later to $52,000.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the buyers will try to flip $45,400 into support. If they succeed, it will suggest that the up-move may continue. The bears will have to pull and sustain the price below $45,400 to weaken the bullish momentum.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke above the symmetrical triangle on March 25 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. However, the buyers did not cede ground to the bears and resumed their purchase on March 26.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The momentum picked up on March 27 and the ETH/USDT pair has reached $3,411 where the bulls may encounter a minor resistance. If bulls bulldoze their way through, the ETH/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological level at $4,000.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from $3,411, the pair could retest the breakout level from the triangle. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest strong buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to resume the up-move.

The bears will have to pull and sustain the price inside the triangle to suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened.

BNB/USDT

BNB continued its northward march and has reached the overhead resistance at $445. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($402) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control. If buyers thrust the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological level at $500. This level could again act as a strong resistance.

If the price turns down from $500 but does not break below $445, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will increase the likelihood of a break above the overhead resistance.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $445, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) turned up on March 26, indicating that bulls are buying on minor dips. The buyers pushed the price above the strong resistance at $0.86 but are facing resistance near $0.91.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone. If buyers do not allow the price to slide below $0.86, the prospects of a break above $0.91 increase. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $1.

This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance at $0.91 and plummets below the moving averages. Such a move could pull the price to the strong support at $0.70.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has continued its recovery and the price has reached the overhead resistance at $1.26 where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($1) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that bulls are in control. If the price turns down from overhead resistance but the bulls do not give up much ground, it will increase the possibility of a break above $1.26.

If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $1.60 and then march higher toward $1.80. This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the psychological level at $1.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token has been stuck in a tight range between the overhead resistance at $96 and the support at the 20-day EMA ($90). This tight-range trading could soon lead to a sharp trending move.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel and sustain the price above $96, the LUNA/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $105.

This level is likely to act as a major obstacle but if bulls overcome it, the uptrend may resume. The pair could then rally to $125. This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That could open the gates for a possible decline to $82.

SOL/USDT

After trading near the overhead resistance at $106 for a few days, Solana (SOL) broke and closed above the level on March 27. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is near the overbought zone, indicating an advantage to buyers.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls sustain the price above $106, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $122. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below $106, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound for a few more days.

The bulls will have to clear the overhead hurdle at $122 to signal the start of a new potential uptrend. The pair could then start its up-move, which could reach the overhead resistance zone between $158 and $163.

Related: Bitcoin to $58K next? A 2019-like ‘reversal ascending triangle’ hints at more upside for BTC

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($83) on March 26, indicating that bulls are buying on dips. The buyers will now try to sustain the price above the immediate resistance at $92.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone at $98 to $100. This is an important zone for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could extend the rally to $120.

If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the bears will try to pull the pair to the moving averages. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may remain stuck between the moving averages and the overhead zone for a few days.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) picked up momentum on March 27 and has reached the stiff overhead resistance at $23. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($20) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that bulls have the upper hand.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls drive and sustain the price above $23, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $28. If bulls succeed in clearing this hurdle, the up-move may extend to $30 and later to $32.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this support will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. That will increase the possibility of a break above the overhead barrier.

This positive view will invalidate if the price breaks below the moving averages. That could extend the consolidation between $16 and $23 for a few more days.

DOGE/USDT

The bulls flipped the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.13) into support on March 25. This attracted strong buying in Dogecoin (DOGE), putting it on the path to a possible rally to $0.17.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is near the overbought zone, indicating that buyers have the upper hand. If bulls drive the price above $0.17, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.22.

If the price turns down from $0.17 but does not give up much ground, it will suggest that the traders expect the recovery to continue.

Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from the current level or the overhead resistance, it will signal that the pair may remain range-bound between $0.12 and $0.17 for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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