Price analysis 4/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE
Bulls set their targets on new highs now that the brief consolidation phase in BTC and altcoins appears to have ended.
Bitcoin (BTC) has clawed back much of the losses that took place in January and now the focus of traders shifts to April, which has historically been a strong month for the cryptocurrency. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has closed April in the red on onlthree occasions and the worst monthly loss was a 3.46% drop in 2015.
Although history favors the bulls, the Whale Shadows indicator has noticed that more than 11,000 Bitcoin has left a wallet in which it had been lying dormant for seven to ten years. The movement of similar-sized quantities from dormant accounts has generally resulted in a major top, according to independent market analyst Phillip Swift.
Along with keeping an eye on the crypto markets, traders should also track the performance of the U.S. stock markets for clues because Bitcoin has been closely correlated to the equity markets for the past several weeks.
Could bulls clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins and extend the strong recovery from the lows? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin turned down from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($48,291) on March 29 and dipped to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($43,935) on April 1. The long tail on April 1’s candlestick suggests that buyers are accumulating on dips.
The bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the 200-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $52,000 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.
Alternatively, if the price once again turns down from the 200-day SMA, it will suggest that bears have erected a strong barrier at this level. The pair could thereafter consolidate between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA for a few days.
A break and close below the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. That could result in a decline to the 50-day SMA ($41,461).
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 200-day SMA ($3,488) on March 29 but the shallow correction and the sharp recovery suggest strong demand at lower levels.
The rising 20-day EMA ($3,098) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control.
If buyers propel the price above the 200-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up further and the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $4,000.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from the overhead resistance, it will suggest that bears are unwilling to relent. The bears will then try to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,860).
BNB broke above the overhead resistance at $445 on March 30 and 31 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.
The bears pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($413) on April 1 but the strong rebound off the level suggests strong buying by the bulls at lower levels.
If bulls push and sustain the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($467) and then make a dash to the psychological level at $500.
This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and plunges below the moving averages. The pair could then remain range-bound between $350 and $445 for a few more days.
Solana (SOL) had been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the critical level at $122. The long wick on the March 31 candlestick indicated selling at higher levels but the bears could not sustain the price below $122 on April 1.
This suggests that the bulls aggressively purchased on the minor dip. The buyers have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $122, indicating the start of a potential new uptrend.
The SOL/USDT pair could now challenge the 200-day SMA ($150). If bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be $163.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above $122, it will suggest that the demand dries up at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA ($103).
Ripple (XRP) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on March 30, which resolved in favor of the bears on March 31 with a sharp down move. This suggests that the buyers who may have purchased at lower levels closed their positions aggressively.
The 20-day EMA ($0.82) is flattening out and the RSI has dropped close to the midpoint, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be weakening. If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.78), the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the next support at $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will try to drive the pair above $0.86 and again challenge the resistance at $0.91. A break and close above this level could open the gates for a possible rally to the psychological level at $1.
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the overhead resistance at $1.26, suggesting that the bears are defending the level with vigor. The price could now drop to the 20-day EMA ($1.05), which is an important level to keep an eye on.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will make one more attempt to push the ADA/USDT pair above $1.26. If they manage to do that, the pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This setup will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.
The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($1.50) and $1.63 where the bears may mount a strong resistance. This bullish view will be negated in the short term if the price breaks and sustains below the 50-day SMA ($0.95).
Terra’s LUNA token turned down after hitting a new all-time high on March 30, indicating that the bears are attempting to stall the uptrend. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to break below $96. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to flip this level into support.
The rising 20-day EMA ($95) suggests advantage to buyers but the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that the bullish momentum could be weakening. If buyers push the price above $111, the uptrend could resume. The LUNA/USDT pair could then rally to $125.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders are aggressively booking profits. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($80).
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Avalanche (AVAX) broke above the overhead resistance at $98 on March 30 and 31 but could not sustain the higher levels. This may have invited profit-booking by the short-term traders.
Although the bears pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($87), the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to drive and sustain the price above the overhead zone between $98 and $100.
If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $120. Conversely, if the price once again turns down from the overhead resistance, it will suggest strong selling at higher levels. That could pull the price to the moving averages.
The failure to break above the $23 resistance may have attracted profit-booking by the short-term traders in Polkadot (DOT). That pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($20) on April 1.
The strong rebound off the 20-day EMA suggests buying on dips. The bulls will now make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $23. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend and the price could rally to the 200-day SMA ($29).
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened. That could pull the price down to $19 and if this level gives way, the next stop could be $16.
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from $0.15 on March 28 and dropped to the moving averages. This is an important support for the buyers to defend if they want the bullish sentiment to remain intact.
If the price rebounds off the current level with strength, the bulls will attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.15. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17. The marginally rising 20-day EMA ($0.13) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a minor advantage to buyers.
This positive view will invalidate in the short term if bears sink and sustain the price below the moving averages. Such a move could open the doors for a possible drop to the critical support zone at $0.12 to $0.10.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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