Price analysis 3/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Price analysis 3/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing signs of starting a new uptrend, indicating that the sentiment may have turned from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

Bitcoin (BTC) and several altcoins surprised many with their newfound strength during the weekend. Bitcoin’s rally easily sliced through the $45,900 level, which according to Glassnode was an area of resistance because several investors had purchased near that level when Bitcoin was declining after hitting its all-time high in November.

Bitcoin’s strength may have attracted buying in several altcoins, which are still languishing below their 52-week high. The rally in Bitcoin and the bottom fishing in altcoins has boosted investor sentiment, pushing the Crypto Fear and Greed Index into the “greed” territory.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Interestingly, the crypto markets have held a large part of their gains despite the tepid performance of the U.S. stock markets on March 28. This suggests that the crypto markets may be in the early stages of decoupling from the equity markets.

Could buyers sustain the momentum and clear the overhead resistance levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin hesitated on March 26 as seen from the inside-day candlestick. This indicated indecision among the bulls and the bears. This uncertainty resolved to the upside on March 27 as the bulls regrouped and propelled the price above the overhead resistance at $45,400.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought zone for the first time since October 2021. This suggests that the momentum favors the buyers.

The bears may attempt to stall the up-move at the resistance line of the ascending channel but if bulls overcome this barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $50,000 and later to $52,000.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the buyers will try to flip $45,400 into support. If they succeed, it will suggest that the up-move may continue. The bears will have to pull and sustain the price below $45,400 to weaken the bullish momentum.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke above the symmetrical triangle on March 25 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. However, the buyers did not cede ground to the bears and resumed their purchase on March 26.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The momentum picked up on March 27 and the ETH/USDT pair has reached $3,411 where the bulls may encounter a minor resistance. If bulls bulldoze their way through, the ETH/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological level at $4,000.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from $3,411, the pair could retest the breakout level from the triangle. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest strong buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to resume the up-move.

The bears will have to pull and sustain the price inside the triangle to suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened.

BNB/USDT

BNB continued its northward march and has reached the overhead resistance at $445. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($402) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control. If buyers thrust the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological level at $500. This level could again act as a strong resistance.

If the price turns down from $500 but does not break below $445, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will increase the likelihood of a break above the overhead resistance.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $445, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) turned up on March 26, indicating that bulls are buying on minor dips. The buyers pushed the price above the strong resistance at $0.86 but are facing resistance near $0.91.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone. If buyers do not allow the price to slide below $0.86, the prospects of a break above $0.91 increase. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to the psychological level at $1.

This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance at $0.91 and plummets below the moving averages. Such a move could pull the price to the strong support at $0.70.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has continued its recovery and the price has reached the overhead resistance at $1.26 where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($1) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that bulls are in control. If the price turns down from overhead resistance but the bulls do not give up much ground, it will increase the possibility of a break above $1.26.

If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $1.60 and then march higher toward $1.80. This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the psychological level at $1.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token has been stuck in a tight range between the overhead resistance at $96 and the support at the 20-day EMA ($90). This tight-range trading could soon lead to a sharp trending move.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel and sustain the price above $96, the LUNA/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $105.

This level is likely to act as a major obstacle but if bulls overcome it, the uptrend may resume. The pair could then rally to $125. This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That could open the gates for a possible decline to $82.

SOL/USDT

After trading near the overhead resistance at $106 for a few days, Solana (SOL) broke and closed above the level on March 27. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is near the overbought zone, indicating an advantage to buyers.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls sustain the price above $106, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $122. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below $106, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound for a few more days.

The bulls will have to clear the overhead hurdle at $122 to signal the start of a new potential uptrend. The pair could then start its up-move, which could reach the overhead resistance zone between $158 and $163.

Related: Bitcoin to $58K next? A 2019-like ‘reversal ascending triangle’ hints at more upside for BTC

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($83) on March 26, indicating that bulls are buying on dips. The buyers will now try to sustain the price above the immediate resistance at $92.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone at $98 to $100. This is an important zone for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could extend the rally to $120.

If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the bears will try to pull the pair to the moving averages. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may remain stuck between the moving averages and the overhead zone for a few days.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) picked up momentum on March 27 and has reached the stiff overhead resistance at $23. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($20) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that bulls have the upper hand.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls drive and sustain the price above $23, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $28. If bulls succeed in clearing this hurdle, the up-move may extend to $30 and later to $32.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this support will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. That will increase the possibility of a break above the overhead barrier.

This positive view will invalidate if the price breaks below the moving averages. That could extend the consolidation between $16 and $23 for a few more days.

DOGE/USDT

The bulls flipped the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.13) into support on March 25. This attracted strong buying in Dogecoin (DOGE), putting it on the path to a possible rally to $0.17.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is near the overbought zone, indicating that buyers have the upper hand. If bulls drive the price above $0.17, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.22.

If the price turns down from $0.17 but does not give up much ground, it will suggest that the traders expect the recovery to continue.

Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from the current level or the overhead resistance, it will signal that the pair may remain range-bound between $0.12 and $0.17 for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Ethereum risks 'double-bust' drop despite ETH price rebounding 30% in two weeks

Ethereum risks ‘double-bust’ drop despite ETH price rebounding 30% in two weeks

Ether now retests a critical resistance range for a potential pullback towards $1,800.

It took Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) only two months to recover from a brutal selloff at the beginning of 2022.

ETH price breaks out but risks remain

ETH price reached near $3,350 on March 28 after rallying by over 30% in just two weeks, and by more than 50% when measured from its year-to-date low of around $2,160, established Jan. 24.

In doing so, the ETH/USD pair may have also “busted” what earlier appeared to be a bearish continuation setup, called the “symmetrical triangle.”

ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ‘symmetrical triangle’ reversal. Source: TradingView

“Busted patterns (when the breakout is in one direction only to see price reverse and breakout in the opposite direction) often result in strong moves,” writes Tom Bulkowski, a veteran market analyst. This raises hopes that Ether can rally to the triangle pattern’s target near $4,000 in the coming days.

ETH fakeout risks

However, the market analyst also notes that symmetrical triangles have a tendency to “double-bust,” wherein the final breakout direction comes out to be the same as the original one.

A double-bust scenario means Ether’s uptrend could exhaust soon, leading to a reversal toward the symmetrical triangle’s top. The downside outlook appears as ETH retests its support-turned-resistance range that served as a selloff area for traders in the January-February session, as shown in the chart below.

ETH/USD daily price chart featuring double-bust scenario. Source: TradingView

As a result, another selloff near the range could the trigger double-bust risks, prompting Ether’s price to drop toward the symmetrical triangle’s downside target near $1,800, set after measuring widest distance between the triangle’s upper and lower trendline and adding it to the breakout point.

Interestingly, the $1,800-level was instrumental in capping Ethereum’s downside attempts during the selloff witnessed in May-July 2021.

Conversely, the double-bust setup will be invalidated if the price decisively rises above the resistance range. PostXBT, an independent market analyst, further noted that flipping levels around $3,350 back to support could raise ETH’s possibilities to hit $4,000.

Ethereum’s upside catalysts

The beginning of Ether’s 30% rebound rally coincided with the Ethereum Beacon Chain’s merge with the Kiln testnet, signaling that its blockchain would completely move to a proof-of-stake network by summer 2022.

Speculators have waited for Ethereum’s move to ETH 2.0 for a long time, since the upgrade promises to deliver cheaper and more efficient transactions.

In theory, it would happen by giving network participants carrot-and-stick incentives to collaborate, wherein they would be required to lock up, or “stake,” 32 ETH for 18 months to become validators. In return, they would receive annual yields in the same token.

Total number of ETH deposits to ETH 2.0. Source: Glassnode

As a result, many analysts predict Ether price will rise as supply decreases, particularly if demand stays the same or continues to rise. 

Related: ETH price hits $3K as major crypto fund adds over $110M Ethereum to Lido’s staking pool

Simultaneously, Ether still faces downside risks due to its strong correlation with the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin (BTC). As reported earlier, BTC’s correlation with stocks is being closely watched this week as BTC/USD challenges key areas of resistance. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Inside the blockchain developers’ mind: What is the ultimate scaling solution?

Inside the blockchain developers’ mind: What is the ultimate scaling solution?

Any innovation must be engineered so that as adoption grows, the right scaling technologies can be integrated into it at the right time.

Cointelegraph is following the development of an entirely new blockchain from inception to the mainnet and beyond through its series, Inside the Blockchain Developer’s Mind, written by Andrew Levine of Koinos Group.

Scalability is a popular topic in blockchain, but few ever explain what we mean by that term. When we at Koinos Group talk about scaling what we mean is scaling to the masses. Creating a blockchain that everyone on Earth can use. That means the blockchain network has to be able to support that level of load, which is typically what people mean when they refer to scalability.

User experience matters

But what they talk about far less is the obvious implication that you must have a user experience that everyone on Earth can find pleasurable. Terrible user experiences are infinitely scalable because there is no demand for bad user experiences and the underlying network resources required to deliver them.

Related: Searching deep: The quest for Bitcoin scalability through layer two protocols

This is demonstrated by the fact that when most projects talk about scaling, they talk about technical implementations like sharding, proof-of-history, or layer 2, which are the solutions that Ethereum is using to solve its scaling challenges.

These projects are responding to Ethereum’s scaling constraints by trying to integrate those scaling solutions sooner, but are failing to realize that those solutions only make sense in Ethereum’s context as not only the first general-purpose blockchain but the one with the most developer adoption in the world.

Ethereum: The first mover

When Ethereum was released, it gave developers, for the first time ever, the ability to develop applications on a shared blockchain platform using a programming language very similar to the ones they were already using to build applications; a Turing complete programming language. Compared to the developer experience of building applications on other blockchains, building on Ethereum was a quantum leap that made it faster, easier and cheaper to build decentralized applications. Thanks to this unparalleled user experience, the usage of Ethereum grew at a high rate. Demand for Ethereum’s resources has outstripped supply, which has led to an increase in demand for gas, and a corresponding price increase, making all Ether (ETH) holders very happy.

The Ethereum developers and stakeholders do not want to eliminate fees or even necessarily reduce them. That would be like oil producers wanting to reduce the price of oil. If there is surplus demand for their network resources, they don’t care about creating a better user experience, they care about increasing supply (scaling) while maintaining the existing user experience.

Related: Ethereum fees are skyrocketing — But traders have alternatives

But that is Ethereum! The 900-pound gorilla of general-purpose blockchains with first mover advantage, incredible developer adoption and unfathomable capital investment. It is a successful platform and its plans for scaling make perfect sense for Ethereum. But they make no sense for platforms that have no usage and no developer adoption.

This is why we see so many projects pursuing labor intensive and risky efforts like bridges to Ethereum in an attempt to siphon users off of Ethereum to trigger the growth they need to justify their scaling solutions!

Reasoning from analogy

But this is classic reasoning from analogy as opposed to reasoning from first principles; making decisions based on what everyone else is doing instead of focusing on the problem you want to solve and the most efficient path for developing a solution based on fundamental truths. Thinking that the way to scale a new blockchain is sharding because sharding is the way to scale Ethereum is a perfect example of reasoning from analogy.

At Koinos Group, we’re approaching this problem from first principles. Scaling to the masses is not about integrating some magical technology that overnight supports everyone and their mother. No technology platform ever goes from zero users to mass adoption overnight. Every platform or product that reaches mainstream adoption only ever achieved that through exponential growth. I’ll repeat that. Every product or platform reaches mass adoption through exponential growth.

What that means is that it doesn’t matter how many users or how many transactions your platform or application stack can handle on Day One. That is effectively irrelevant.

What matters the most is that your product has some unique value proposition that a small number of early adopters will love, even if the cost is relatively high. Koinos allows people to use decentralized applications for free simply by holding liquid KOIN tokens in their wallets. They don’t have to buy an account or consciously stake their tokens because every liquid KOIN token contains mana that is consumed down when they use the blockchain. As an account’s mana gets consumed, the tokens containing that mana are automatically locked for some time, creating an opportunity cost instead of an explicit fee.

Video game experience

This gives the blockchain a video game-like user experience, instead of the unpleasant UX of every other blockchain. This delivers a fundamentally different, and more pleasant user experience, but it’s not like the whole world is going to want to use Koinos on Day One. Ethereum’s fee-based model is still the dominant paradigm, which is only validated by its many imitators/competitors. It also has an army of developers, token holders and institutional investors advocating for it (and by extension, its fee-based model).

Related: Inside the blockchain developers’ mind: Building a free-to-use social DApp

On Day One, a relatively small group (hopefully, not too small) of early adopters looking for the next best thing will begin using Koinos. The mainnet needs to be able to give those people a pleasant user experience, but no more. As those people use the blockchain and discover that it truly has a delightful user experience, they will spread the word, and usage of the blockchain will go up.

At a certain point, the usage of Koinos will get high enough that the amount of a user’s tokens getting locked is very high and the new user experience relative to the original user experience might be unacceptable. This is what Koinos hitting its scaling constraints looks like. But bear in mind, the user is still not losing those tokens forever (a fee), they are only sacrificing some opportunity cost, which is an infinitely better user experience.

Upgradeability: The ultimate scaling solution

Koinos has to be engineered so that as adoption grows, the right scaling technologies can be integrated at the right time. This is why Koinos is not optimized for any particular scaling solution, but upgradeability in general, making it as easy as possible for new technologies to be added once they have been sufficiently battle-tested. This turns all of the other projects experimenting with scaling technologies prematurely into fertile testing grounds for Koinos!

Scaling is not an end goal, it’s a process that unfolds throughout the lifetime of a platform, at least, if the platform is sufficiently upgradeable. If the platform isn’t sufficiently upgradeable then you have to pick the “right” scaling solutions on Day One, even if you don’t need it, but this is more of a reflection of poor upgradeability (and bad engineering) than anything else.

This is why I like to say that upgradeability is the ultimate scaling solution.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Andrew Levine is the CEO of Koinos Group, a team of industry veterans accelerating decentralization through accessible blockchain technology. Their foundational product is Koinos, a feeless and infinitely upgradeable blockchain with universal language support.
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