Market Analysis

BTC could drop to $30K in 2 weeks, trader warns as gold goes for $2K high

The precious metal is stealing the limelight as Bitcoin languishes under $40,000 after the Easter weekend.

Bitcoin (BTC) is in line for a relief bounce but still risks dropping all the way to $30,000 before May, a new analysis warned on April 18.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$30,000 dive is April “risk”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $39,000 on April 18 as bearish prognoses for the pair mounted.

After losing $40,000 support overnight into April 18, Bitcoin faced thin liquidity in the absence of United States and European equities trading, thanks to the Easter weekend.

For popular trader Crypto Ed, a near-term retreat should bottom out at $37,500 before a rebound kicks in.

“First need to reclaim $40,000; if we manage that, it’ll certainly give a bullish impulse to the market,” he said in his latest YouTube update.

Should that happen, $43,000 could figure as the local high but going forward, the picture looks bleak. Using Elliott Wave analysis, Crypto Ed predicted a repeat of recent downside moves interspersed with a brief relief bounce. The target, he concluded, was $30,000.

“That’s the risk for the coming, let’s say, two weeks,” he added.

Popular Twitter account Bitcoin Jack likewise called for the coming weeks to act as a moment of reckoning for longer-term price action.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, $30,000 as a target for May or June is nothing new.

Gold strikes out as crypto correlation wanes

Despite Bitcoin coming under pressure, there was no sense of pain for safe haven gold on April 18.

Related: US dollar strength mimics 2020 Coronavirus crash — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

After climbing throughout the past week, XAU/USD crept up on the $2,000 mark again, coming within $2 of the resistance level before retreating to around $1,990.

Nonetheless, the pair traded at its highest since March 11, giving the U.S. dollar’s own strength a run for its money.

“A 50-day correlation coefficient for Bitcoin and gold is around minus 0.4, the lowest since 2018,” journalist Colin Wu noted about the implications of gold and Bitcoin’s diverging price performance.

“For now, Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 15% this year, while Bitcoin has shed some 16%.” 

XAU/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin average transaction fees lowest in two years at $1.04

The average BTC transaction fee saw a steady decline from an all-time high of $62.788 in April 2021 before coming down.

The average transaction fee per Bitcoin (BTC) transaction made a complete 360-degree over nearly two years to settle down at $1.039, a number which was last recorded back in June 2020. 

The BTC transaction fee is the cost to transfer any amount of BTC, which is also directly proportional to the time it takes to validate and complete the transaction.

As evidenced by data provided by Blockchain.com, the average BTC transaction fee saw a steady decline from an all-time high of $62.788 in April 2021 before coming down to an eight-month average of $2 in July 2021.

Average BTC transaction fee in U.S. dollars. Source: blockchain.com

Before April 2021, Bitcoin’s average transaction fees peaked in Dec. 2017, standing at $54.638. The sudden spike in the transaction fees at the time mirrored the significant decline in the Bitcoin network hash rate. However, at the time of writing, the Bitcoin network hash rate maintains its newly attained all-time high of 248.11 EH/s.

All-time high BTC average transaction fees. Source: blockchain.com

As a result of the above combination, Bitcoin’s highly resilient network can process secure BTC transactions at lower costs. BTC’s price volatility has also shown greater stability as it oscillates between the $35,000 to $45,000 mark throughout the year, as seen below based on data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC market price chart 2022. Source: TradingView

With more jurisdictions ready to ease up on the Bitcoin ecosystem along with timely network updates, the resultant increase in participation will further ensure a stronger network while playing a deflationary role in Bitcoin’s price. 

Related: Quantum computing firm simulates adoption of crypto payments

Quantum computing firm Multiverse Computing ran simulations around the adoption of BTC and Ether (ETH) in Canadian markets to study their viability as a mainstream payment method.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Multiverse Computing chief technology officer Sam Mugel suggested that non-financial institutions could carry out “a high uptake of crypto in the short term” when considering digital assets for payments.

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Weekend Watch: Status Quo as BTC Steady at $40K, ETH at $3,000
The cryptocurrency market stands still today, but Bitcoin and Ethereum trade above $40,000 and $3,000, respectively.
Cardano Multi-Billion Dollar Whales’ Holdings Signal Strong Fundamentals — What’s Next For ADA?
Cardano's First AMM DEX Crosses 100 Million ADA In Trading Volume

Faltering market sentiments have not deterred massive buying of leading cryptocurrencies like Cardano (ADA).

Price analysis 4/13: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bitcoin and altcoins are attempting a recovery, but the bulls are likely to encounter stiff resistance at higher levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins are attempting a recovery after the sharp fall on April 11. According to Glassnode’s recent weekly report, Bitcoin has witnessed a “modest volume of profit-taking by investors” since mid-February, which could “be providing sufficient headwinds to prices.”

While some investors are booking profits, the Luna Foundation Guard, the nonprofit organization attached to Blockchain protocol Terra, has continued to grow its stockpile of Bitcoin. Terra added 2,508 Bitcoin on April 13 to take its total holding to 42,406 Bitcoin, just shy of Tesla’s corporate treasury at 43,200 Bitcoin.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Larger investors do not seem to be perturbed by the volatility and sharp declines in cryptocurrencies and are taking a long-term view. Pantera Blockchain Fund, which had plans to raise $600 million, has amassed about $1.3 billion, indicating huge demand.

Will bulls be able to sustain the bounce in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Although Bitcoin broke below the psychological level at $40,000 on April 11, the bears could not build upon this momentum. This indicates that the bulls are buying at lower levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The relief rally could hit a wall at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($42,967). If the price turns down from this resistance, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) below 44 suggest a minor advantage to sellers.

The bears will have to sink the price below $39,200 to resume the decline. The BTC/USDT pair could then drop to the support line of the ascending channel. On the contrary, if the price continues higher and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance at $45,400.

ETH/USDT

The bulls are attempting to arrest the decline at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($2,958). Although Ether (ETH) attempted a rebound on April 12, the buyers could not sustain the higher levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are again attempting to extend the relief rally on April 13. The bounce is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($3,172). If the price turns down from this level, the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA increases. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could decline to the uptrend line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest aggressive buying by the bulls. The pair could then attempt a rally to the 200-day SMA ($3,490). The pair may then consolidate between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA for a few days.

BNB/USDT

BNB plunged below the 50-day SMA ($402) on April 11 but the bears could not capitalize on this breakdown. The bulls purchased the dip aggressively and pushed the price back above the 50-day SMA on April 12.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers are attempting to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($420). If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the 200-day SMA ($470) where the bears may mount a strong resistance. That could keep the price inside the range between the 200-day SMA and the 50-day SMA for a few days.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate selling at higher levels. The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below the immediate support at $391. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to $350.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($99) on April 12 but the bulls could not push the price above the 20-day EMA ($110). This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will now attempt to sink and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $81. The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might because a break and close below it could resume the downtrend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $122.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) bounced off the strong support at $0.69 on April 12 but the bulls could not sustain the recovery. This indicates that the bears are active at higher levels. The inside-day candlestick pattern on April 13 suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.77) is sloping down and the RSI is near 39, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price breaks below the strong support at $0.69, the selling could pick up momentum. The XRP/USDT pair could then decline to $0.62.

Conversely, if the price continues to move up, the pair will attempt to rise above the 50-day SMA ($0.78). If that happens, it will suggest that the pair could trade inside a large range between $0.69 and $0.91 for some more time.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) attempted a relief rally on April 12 but the bulls could not clear the overhead hurdle at the psychological level at $1. This indicates that bears are attempting to flip the $1 level into resistance.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price once again turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $0.91, the correction could resume. The ADA/USDT pair could then drop to $0.86 and later to the critical support at $0.74. The 20-day EMA ($1.04) is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, suggesting advantage to bears.

This negative view will be invalidated in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. Such a move could open the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $1.26.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on April 12 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears sold at higher levels. A minor positive is that the buyers are again trying to extend the recovery on April 13.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls push the price above $89, the LUNA/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($96) where the bears are likely to mount a strong resistance. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate advantage to sellers.

If the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $80, the correction could resume and the pair may slide to the strong support at $75.

Alternatively, if the price continues to move up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $104.

Related: ApeCoin eyes 250% rally amid ‘bull pennant’ breakout, Robinhood APE listing rumors

AVAX/USDT

The bulls are attempting to arrest the decline in Avalanche (AVAX) at the uptrend line but the bounce is likely to encounter strong resistance from the bears near the moving averages.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price fails to break above the moving averages within the next few days, the possibility of a break below the uptrend line increases. If that happens, the AVAX/USDT pair could decline to the next support at $65.

This level is likely to act as a strong support as the bulls have defended it successfully on two previous occasions. A strong rebound off it will indicate that the pair may trade inside the range between $65 and $99 for a few more days.

Alternatively, a break and close below $65 could intensify selling and the pair may drop to the critical support at $51.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) is attempting a recovery after the sharp fall on April 11, which suggests buying at lower levels. However, the bulls are likely to face stiff resistance from the bears at higher levels.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price fails to rise above the immediate overhead resistance at $19, the bears will try to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the strong support at $16. If they succeed, the decline could extend to $14. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($19) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Alternatively, if the price moves up sharply and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then consolidate inside the range between $16 and $23 for a few more days.

DOGE/USDT

The buyers are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.13) but the weak rebound off the strong support suggests a lack of buyers in Dogecoin (DOGE) at higher levels. This increases the possibility of a break below the 50-day SMA.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price fails to sustain above the 20-day EMA ($0.14), the sellers will attempt to extend the decline by pulling the DOGE/USDT pair below the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $0.12 and then slide to the critical support at $0.10.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up sharply and rises above $0.15, it will suggest strong buying at the 50-day SMA. The pair could then remain stuck between the 200-day SMA ($0.18) and the 50-day SMA for a few days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

“Buy” Is The Top Trending Term On Crypto Platforms Even As Bitcoin Struggles To Hold Above $40K
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According to the behavioral analytics firm Santiment, during the last couple of days, the word “buy” has been the top trending keyword in crypto circles even as bitcoin currently struggles in the throes of $40K.

Bitcoin bounces to near $41K after crypto sentiment gauge hits 6-week lows

A spike higher on April 13’s Wall Street open is not enough to rescue the trend, one trader warns.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a welcome break from downside at the Wall Street open on April 13 as United States equities opened in the green.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Sub-$39,000 BTC price target remains

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to local highs of $40,965 on Bitstamp as trading began on April 13, its best in over 24 hours.

After a frustrating rangebound period, volatility to the upside was a relief for support levels previously in danger of collapsing.

Traders, however, were not overly optimistic, having eyed lower entry levels for a potential long position.

As Cointelegraph reported, popular trader Crypto Ed was also risk-off in tone on the day, previously forecasting a relief bounce before a deeper correction under $39,000.

“I expect a move, let’s say, towards $41,000 and then I think most likely we do get that extra leg to the downside,” he said in a YouTube update published subsequently. 

Ed added that the scenario would be invalidated should BTC/USD manage to hold above the $40,500 mark. At the time of writing, the pair was continuing to move towards the $41,000 target.

Macro triggers remained familiar, these coming in the form of inflation after April 12’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout of 8.5% for March, its highest since 1981. In the United Kingdom, the CPI quickened to 7%, a 30-year high, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

Sentiment on the move from 6-week lows

Traders seemed prepared for the bounce, with data showing modest position liquidations for both longs and shorts over the past 24 hours.

Related: BTC stocks correlation ‘not what we want’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The dip below $40,000 had conversely cost market participants dearly, with liquidations passing $500 million fueled by longs.

Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

At the same time, sentiment was rising, as calculated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, this having reached 20/100 or “extreme fear” on April 12. Such a low sentiment score was last recorded in late February.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

ApeCoin eyes 250% rally amid 'bull pennant' breakout, Robinhood APE listing rumors

The APE price upside setup appears amid rumors that Robinhood might list ApeCoin.

ApeCoin’s (APE) market valuation could grow by nearly 250% in the second quarter of 2022 as it breaks out of a widely-tracked, classic technical pattern.

APE price “bull pennant” breakout underway

On April 13, APE’s price broke above the upper trendline of what appears to be a “bull pennant” chart pattern.

Bull pennants appear when the price consolidates inside a triangle-like structure following a strong uptrend. Many traditional analysts consider them as continuation patterns, for they typically result in the price breaking out in the direction of its previous trend.

As a rule, traders estimate a bull pennant’s upside target by measuring the size of the previous uptrend, called “flagpole,” and adding it to the breakout point. Applying the same to ApeCoin’s ongoing breakout move shows its potential for its potential for massive upside. 

APE/USD daily price chart featuring ‘bull pennant’ setup. Source: TradingView

Therefore, if the bull pennant structure pans out as intended, APE could rise to nearly $40 in Q2/2022.

Robinhood listing?

The bullish setup for ApeCoin appears as it rebounds by nearly 17% to over $12.50 in two days, amid speculations that Robinhood, a popular retail brokerage firm, would list APE on its trading platform.

The rumors picked up momentum after Robinhood added Shiba Inu (SHIB), a Dogecoin-inspired meme cryptocurrency, alongside three other altcoins — Polygon (MATIC), Solana (SOL), and Compound (COMP) — for trading this Tuesday, leading to intraday gains across each asset.

However, Robinhood did not confirm any plans to integrate ApeCoin into its services, hinting that APE’s price gains since Tuesday might have resulted from mere speculation. Additionally, its breakout move out of the bull pennant accompanied lower volumes, suggesting a lack of upside conviction in the market.

Related: Is the surge in OpenSea volume and blue-chip NFT sales an early sign of an NFT bull market?

As a result, ApeCoin’s potential to invalidate its bull pennant setup cannot be ruled out as long as it breaks above a sequence of resistance levels, as shown in the chart below, with a steady rise in volumes.

APE/USD daily price chart featuring Fibonacci support/resistance levels. Source: TradingView

For instance, APE now eyes $13 as its next upside target while holding $11.50 as its interim support. Nonetheless, a break below the said price floor could have ApeCoin eye $10.25 as its next downside target.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

500 BTC Worth $19,957,591 USD Transferred from Unknown Wallet to Gemini
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