Ethereum Poised to Retest $3.5K as Bullish Sign Reappear (ETH Price Analysis)

After experiencing a rapid downturn, Ethereum has found itself supported by a substantial zone, comprising the 100-day moving average and a critical price range between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. Consequently, a bullish rebound is anticipated in the medium term.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A thorough examination of the daily chart reveals an extended period of corrective retracements, culminating in the price finding support within a pivotal zone.

This zone encompasses the 100-day moving average at $3050 and the significant price range between the 0.5 ($3190) and 0.618 ($2972) Fibonacci levels.

This range carries significance as it attracts considerable demand, potentially hindering further downward pressure from market sellers. Additionally, a minor bullish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator suggests the potential for a bullish resurgence, targeting a reclaim of the $3.5K threshold. However, despite the bullish indications, an unexpected breach below this critical support zone could trigger a cascade effect toward the 200-day moving average at $2.5K.

eth_price_chart_2004241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

A closer inspection of the 4-hour chart reveals the formation of a descending wedge pattern during a multi-month consolidation correction. Following a significant decline, the price has reached the lower boundary of the wedge and the support region around $3K.

Nonetheless, given the potential buying pressure within this crucial range, the price has entered a consolidation phase characterized by minimal volatility.

This price action highlights a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Nevertheless, a noticeable divergence between the price and the RSI indicator on the 4-hour timeframe suggests the strength of buyers, increasing the likelihood of a bullish upswing in the medium term. In such a scenario, the next target for the price would be the critical resistance level at $3.5K. Conversely, should a break below this support occur, a descent toward the $2.7K support becomes increasingly probable.

eth_price_chart_2004241
Source: TradingView

Sentiment Analysis

By Shayan

As Ethereumโ€™s price exhibits signs of recovery, itโ€™s crucial to determine whether this resurgence stems from spot buying or leveraged futures activity. A key metric for this analysis is the funding rates, where positive values signify bullish sentiment and negative values indicate fear in the market.

Observing the recent downtrend in Ethereumโ€™s price, itโ€™s notable that the funding rate metric has mirrored this trajectory, steadily declining until reaching near-zero levels. This alignment suggests that the recent price drop has led to the liquidation of a significant number of positions in the perpetual market, resulting in a cooling effect on the futures market. Consequently, the market appears primed for the re-emergence of long positions, with the potential for a fresh upward surge.

eth_funding_rates_chart_2004241
Source: CryptoQuant

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