GBP/USD. April 24th. The pound felt strong on Tuesday

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday consolidated above the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 and rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2464). A rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and some decline toward the zone of 1.2363–1.2370. Consolidation of the pair’s rate above the level of 1.2464 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next level at 1.2517.

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The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has yet to come close to the last peak from April 9. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains “bearish,” and there are no signs of its completion at the moment. The first sign of bulls transitioning to the offensive could be a breakthrough of the peak from April 9, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 280 points to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715. It is unlikely that a trend change to “bullish” should be expected in the coming days. A new downward wave, if weak and does not break the low from April 22, may also indicate a trend change.

On Tuesday, the information background was positive for the pound. American business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors in April turned out to be weaker than in March, while in the UK, the service sector grew so much that the index for the manufacturing sector no longer mattered. Bulls received the necessary support, but after the 9-day formation of a downward wave, a corrective wave was imminent in any case. Yesterday, the information background coincided with traders’ desire to form an upward wave. Today, much will depend on the report on durable goods orders in the US. Forecasts for this report are quite high, but they may be exceeded, as has happened more than once. Bears may take revenge for yesterday’s day.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the pound and returned to the level of 1.2450. A rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the American currency and the resumption of decline towards the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2289). The downward trend corridor still characterizes the current sentiment of traders as “bearish.” Consolidation of the pair’s rate above the level of 1.2450 will allow further growth of the pound towards the upper trend line of the trend channel.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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The sentiment of the “Non-commercial” trader category for the last reporting week became less “bullish.” The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 8200 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11433 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains “bullish” but has weakened in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is almost absent now: 72 thousand versus 63 thousand.

The prospects for the pound to decline are still in place. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 62 thousand to 72 thousand, while the number of short positions has increased from 47 thousand to 63 thousand. This explains the relatively weak decline of the pound. Over time, bulls will start getting rid of buy positions or increasing sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to go on the offensive in recent months, but inflation reports in the US and UK may give them new strength.

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News Calendar for the US and UK:

US – Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On Wednesday, the economic events calendar contains only one entry in the US. The impact of the information background on the market sentiment today may be of moderate strength.

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Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Advice:

Selling the pound is possible today on the hourly chart with a rebound from the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2363–1.2370. Buying the pair was possible when rebounding from the level of 1.2300 with a target at 1.2363 and with consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370 with a target at 1.2464. All targets were reached. New purchases are possible with a rebound from the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 or with consolidation above the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2517.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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